Calibration and uncertainty: research plan

A lower number in the "Priority" column runs sooner.

Priority

Id	Question	Priority	Waits for	State
P14	Which coupling step, ECC-Q or the Schaake shuffle, gives better coherence scores at short and long leads?	5	The scoring harness and experiment 00016	Deferred; no consumer needs coherent members yet

Planned experiments

Experiment	Hypothesis	Relevance

Proposals in detail

P14: coupling

The coupling step turns calibrated quantiles back into 51 coherent members. The arms are ECC-Q with the interpolation, tail, and tie rules of the staged forecast roadmap page, and the Schaake shuffle, scored by the variogram score and the CRPS of summed solar farms in a weather cell, by lead band.