{
  "provenance": {
    "nwp_version": 924,
    "power_version": 76,
    "device": "cuda",
    "xgboost": "3.4.1",
    "scipy": "1.18.1",
    "features": [
      "wind_speed_10m",
      "wind_direction_10m",
      "wind_speed_100m",
      "wind_direction_100m"
    ],
    "settings": {
      "primary": {
        "max_depth": 6,
        "learning_rate": 0.05,
        "subsample": 0.8,
        "min_child_weight": 20.0,
        "reg_lambda": 1.0,
        "num_boost_round": 500
      },
      "sensitivity": {
        "max_depth": 4,
        "learning_rate": 0.03,
        "subsample": 0.8,
        "min_child_weight": 50.0,
        "reg_lambda": 5.0,
        "num_boost_round": 1200
      }
    },
    "seeds": [
      0,
      1,
      2
    ],
    "affine_checks": {
      "linear": 1.7763568394002505e-15,
      "pchip": 0.0,
      "makima": 0.0
    },
    "excluded_incomplete_site_runs": 0,
    "matched_rows": 233836,
    "missing_target_rows": 1460,
    "training_stop_exclusive": "2025-06-24T00:00:00+00:00",
    "validation_start": "2025-07-01T00:00:00+00:00",
    "validation_stop_exclusive": "2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00",
    "normalisation": "maximum cleaned pre-embargo training power per site",
    "code_commit": "320e73c5eedbf10fb82576ab8f11e5d39e429d11"
  },
  "absolute_errors": [
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day1",
      "arm": "linear",
      "mae": 8.857697,
      "rows": 155553
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day1",
      "arm": "makima",
      "mae": 8.8882,
      "rows": 155553
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day1",
      "arm": "pchip",
      "mae": 8.914291,
      "rows": 155553
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day7",
      "arm": "linear",
      "mae": 17.598413,
      "rows": 155553
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day7",
      "arm": "makima",
      "mae": 17.670507,
      "rows": 155553
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day7",
      "arm": "pchip",
      "mae": 17.652111,
      "rows": 155553
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day1",
      "arm": "linear",
      "mae": 8.691598,
      "rows": 155553
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day1",
      "arm": "makima",
      "mae": 8.715127,
      "rows": 155553
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day1",
      "arm": "pchip",
      "mae": 8.725402,
      "rows": 155553
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day7",
      "arm": "linear",
      "mae": 17.337368,
      "rows": 155553
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day7",
      "arm": "makima",
      "mae": 17.385096,
      "rows": 155553
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day7",
      "arm": "pchip",
      "mae": 17.359488,
      "rows": 155553
    }
  ],
  "contrasts": [
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day1",
      "method": "makima",
      "difference": 0.030503105372190475,
      "lower_95": -0.004037617845460772,
      "upper_95": 0.0633971547707915,
      "seed_spread": 0.0059377229772508144,
      "n_rows": 51851,
      "n_months": 12,
      "lower_98_75": -0.013923343742499128,
      "upper_98_75": 0.07231070292182276
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day1",
      "method": "pchip",
      "difference": 0.05659475922584534,
      "lower_95": 0.015578496572561561,
      "upper_95": 0.10190884210169304,
      "seed_spread": 0.006600534543395042,
      "n_rows": 51851,
      "n_months": 12,
      "lower_98_75": 0.00599701999744866,
      "upper_98_75": 0.11574571067467333
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day7",
      "method": "makima",
      "difference": 0.0720941573381424,
      "lower_95": -0.0070002301945351056,
      "upper_95": 0.14850097745656965,
      "seed_spread": 0.015540637075901031,
      "n_rows": 51851,
      "n_months": 12,
      "lower_98_75": -0.034021254593972115,
      "upper_98_75": 0.16491671521216633
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day7",
      "method": "pchip",
      "difference": 0.053697358816862106,
      "lower_95": 0.00012004300751868903,
      "upper_95": 0.12115923184901474,
      "seed_spread": 0.01905057206749916,
      "n_rows": 51851,
      "n_months": 12,
      "lower_98_75": -0.011469479044899344,
      "upper_98_75": 0.1372379398904743
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day1",
      "method": "makima",
      "difference": 0.02352960966527462,
      "lower_95": -0.006481924350373447,
      "upper_95": 0.051566154323518236,
      "seed_spread": 0.0012201935751363635,
      "n_rows": 51851,
      "n_months": 12,
      "lower_98_75": -0.01681919174734503,
      "upper_98_75": 0.05860320471692844
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day1",
      "method": "pchip",
      "difference": 0.03380377218127251,
      "lower_95": 0.002716723893536255,
      "upper_95": 0.06551794856786725,
      "seed_spread": 0.0019960764329880476,
      "n_rows": 51851,
      "n_months": 12,
      "lower_98_75": -0.00453101038292516,
      "upper_98_75": 0.07444629799574619
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day7",
      "method": "makima",
      "difference": 0.04772740229964256,
      "lower_95": -0.015580603084526957,
      "upper_95": 0.10486801713705061,
      "seed_spread": 0.007984889671206474,
      "n_rows": 51851,
      "n_months": 12,
      "lower_98_75": -0.034569574031047524,
      "upper_98_75": 0.11989361662417651
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day7",
      "method": "pchip",
      "difference": 0.02211887203156948,
      "lower_95": -0.04004770005121827,
      "upper_95": 0.08092132303863758,
      "seed_spread": 0.01008908636868,
      "n_rows": 51851,
      "n_months": 12,
      "lower_98_75": -0.05637471370864659,
      "upper_98_75": 0.0953045920468869
    }
  ],
  "per_site": [
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day1",
      "site": "W1",
      "arm": "linear",
      "mae": 8.35322
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day1",
      "site": "W1",
      "arm": "makima",
      "mae": 8.411081
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day1",
      "site": "W1",
      "arm": "pchip",
      "mae": 8.439664
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day1",
      "site": "W2",
      "arm": "linear",
      "mae": 9.413051
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day1",
      "site": "W2",
      "arm": "makima",
      "mae": 9.444293
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day1",
      "site": "W2",
      "arm": "pchip",
      "mae": 9.472382
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day1",
      "site": "W3",
      "arm": "linear",
      "mae": 8.808023
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day1",
      "site": "W3",
      "arm": "makima",
      "mae": 8.810476
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day1",
      "site": "W3",
      "arm": "pchip",
      "mae": 8.832091
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day7",
      "site": "W1",
      "arm": "linear",
      "mae": 17.488503
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day7",
      "site": "W1",
      "arm": "makima",
      "mae": 17.49762
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day7",
      "site": "W1",
      "arm": "pchip",
      "mae": 17.515783
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day7",
      "site": "W2",
      "arm": "linear",
      "mae": 19.109142
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day7",
      "site": "W2",
      "arm": "makima",
      "mae": 19.295633
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day7",
      "site": "W2",
      "arm": "pchip",
      "mae": 19.265335
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day7",
      "site": "W3",
      "arm": "linear",
      "mae": 16.202915
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day7",
      "site": "W3",
      "arm": "makima",
      "mae": 16.223906
    },
    {
      "setting": "primary",
      "band": "day7",
      "site": "W3",
      "arm": "pchip",
      "mae": 16.180866
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day1",
      "site": "W1",
      "arm": "linear",
      "mae": 8.19361
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day1",
      "site": "W1",
      "arm": "makima",
      "mae": 8.239854
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day1",
      "site": "W1",
      "arm": "pchip",
      "mae": 8.243838
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day1",
      "site": "W2",
      "arm": "linear",
      "mae": 9.239484
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day1",
      "site": "W2",
      "arm": "makima",
      "mae": 9.269871
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day1",
      "site": "W2",
      "arm": "pchip",
      "mae": 9.281189
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day1",
      "site": "W3",
      "arm": "linear",
      "mae": 8.642888
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day1",
      "site": "W3",
      "arm": "makima",
      "mae": 8.636908
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day1",
      "site": "W3",
      "arm": "pchip",
      "mae": 8.652421
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day7",
      "site": "W1",
      "arm": "linear",
      "mae": 17.26999
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day7",
      "site": "W1",
      "arm": "makima",
      "mae": 17.24861
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day7",
      "site": "W1",
      "arm": "pchip",
      "mae": 17.25581
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day7",
      "site": "W2",
      "arm": "linear",
      "mae": 18.835423
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day7",
      "site": "W2",
      "arm": "makima",
      "mae": 18.97612
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day7",
      "site": "W2",
      "arm": "pchip",
      "mae": 18.925385
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day7",
      "site": "W3",
      "arm": "linear",
      "mae": 15.912033
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day7",
      "site": "W3",
      "arm": "makima",
      "mae": 15.936125
    },
    {
      "setting": "sensitivity",
      "band": "day7",
      "site": "W3",
      "arm": "pchip",
      "mae": 15.902797
    }
  ],
  "withheld_native": [
    {
      "method": "linear",
      "mean_vector_error_m_s": 1.1736763507645904,
      "samples": 59112
    },
    {
      "method": "pchip",
      "mean_vector_error_m_s": 1.157973200293693,
      "samples": 59112
    },
    {
      "method": "makima",
      "mean_vector_error_m_s": 1.1527620581681572,
      "samples": 59112
    }
  ],
  "midas": {
    "provenance": {
      "nwp_version": 924,
      "candidate_stations": 15,
      "represented_stations": 15,
      "excluded_incomplete_station_runs": 0,
      "weather_sha256": "cb6bd8c9499ba2312686914c08afaeda129f6b2b2e7d6f756a82f84d03f61421",
      "station_metadata_sha256": "3c98d20c4b9a8aba3270280c8692b72a54d66df05d178c5fed27eb70e6fd3acc",
      "unit_codes": [
        1,
        4
      ],
      "message": "SYNOP",
      "window": "timestamp minus20 to minus10 minutes",
      "start": "2024-04-01T00:00:00+00:00",
      "stop_exclusive": "2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
      "status": "post-hoc exploratory",
      "quadrature_convergence": {
        "linear": {
          "points_per_window": 80,
          "max_difference_m_s": 1.0443508093274656e-05,
          "mean_difference_m_s": 2.5517709887164667e-11
        },
        "pchip": {
          "points_per_window": 40,
          "max_difference_m_s": 4.621739370856692e-05,
          "mean_difference_m_s": 1.5273654248264532e-10
        },
        "makima": {
          "points_per_window": 40,
          "max_difference_m_s": 1.6476004794457877e-05,
          "mean_difference_m_s": 3.8658845389552455e-11
        }
      }
    },
    "absolute_errors": [
      {
        "band": "day1",
        "arm": "linear",
        "mae_m_s": 1.1984439338052517,
        "rows": 229528
      },
      {
        "band": "day1",
        "arm": "makima",
        "mae_m_s": 1.2002418178866274,
        "rows": 229528
      },
      {
        "band": "day1",
        "arm": "pchip",
        "mae_m_s": 1.200275477795353,
        "rows": 229528
      },
      {
        "band": "day7",
        "arm": "linear",
        "mae_m_s": 2.0011115800877,
        "rows": 227368
      },
      {
        "band": "day7",
        "arm": "makima",
        "mae_m_s": 2.008421217091883,
        "rows": 227368
      },
      {
        "band": "day7",
        "arm": "pchip",
        "mae_m_s": 2.007031417698446,
        "rows": 227368
      }
    ],
    "contrasts": [
      {
        "band": "day1",
        "method": "makima",
        "difference": 0.0017978840813777054,
        "lower_95": -0.00033297266996117953,
        "upper_95": 0.003822983347941454,
        "seed_spread": 0.0,
        "n_rows": 229528,
        "n_months": 21,
        "lower_98_75": -0.0009001862822464209,
        "upper_98_75": 0.004413344683101851
      },
      {
        "band": "day1",
        "method": "pchip",
        "difference": 0.001831543990102836,
        "lower_95": -7.450467914129015e-05,
        "upper_95": 0.0036607341123182312,
        "seed_spread": 0.0,
        "n_rows": 229528,
        "n_months": 21,
        "lower_98_75": -0.0005756483939764218,
        "upper_98_75": 0.004133034505136581
      },
      {
        "band": "day7",
        "method": "makima",
        "difference": 0.007309637004186511,
        "lower_95": 0.0019413813911536657,
        "upper_95": 0.012604212258149164,
        "seed_spread": 0.0,
        "n_rows": 227368,
        "n_months": 21,
        "lower_98_75": 0.0008172661323108023,
        "upper_98_75": 0.013975164208199668
      },
      {
        "band": "day7",
        "method": "pchip",
        "difference": 0.005919837610750401,
        "lower_95": 0.0012549899974444961,
        "upper_95": 0.010541890498252883,
        "seed_spread": 0.0,
        "n_rows": 227368,
        "n_months": 21,
        "lower_98_75": 0.00013171138118052992,
        "upper_98_75": 0.011611203587819571
      }
    ]
  }
}