== Line (b) per seed: slope on the heating contribution and heating RMSE shape: (10, 6) ┌─────────────────┬────────┬───────────────────┬─────────────┬──────────────────┬────────────┐ │ period ┆ seed ┆ Pooled fit (tuned ┆ Fair oracle ┆ Complete pooling ┆ No pooling │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ penalty) ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ str ┆ --- ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 │ │ ┆ ┆ f64 ┆ ┆ ┆ │ ╞═════════════════╪════════╪═══════════════════╪═════════════╪══════════════════╪════════════╡ │ 4 June weeks ┆ seed 1 ┆ 2.012791 ┆ 2.767735 ┆ 2.071517 ┆ 9.442504 │ │ 4 June weeks ┆ seed 2 ┆ 2.161052 ┆ 2.549546 ┆ 2.26641 ┆ 6.892872 │ │ 4 June weeks ┆ seed 3 ┆ 2.12735 ┆ 2.35286 ┆ 2.225896 ┆ 6.369511 │ │ 4 June weeks ┆ seed 4 ┆ 2.320344 ┆ 3.28555 ┆ 2.335839 ┆ 7.164603 │ │ 4 June weeks ┆ seed 5 ┆ 2.379253 ┆ 3.44655 ┆ 2.428701 ┆ 12.039033 │ │ 4 January weeks ┆ seed 1 ┆ 1.87462 ┆ 2.370238 ┆ 2.103846 ┆ 5.210371 │ │ 4 January weeks ┆ seed 2 ┆ 1.988811 ┆ 2.301521 ┆ 2.28749 ┆ 4.334115 │ │ 4 January weeks ┆ seed 3 ┆ 1.993972 ┆ 2.584486 ┆ 2.171069 ┆ 5.506199 │ │ 4 January weeks ┆ seed 4 ┆ 2.262535 ┆ 4.058343 ┆ 2.197676 ┆ 8.40521 │ │ 4 January weeks ┆ seed 5 ┆ 2.460585 ┆ 3.219024 ┆ 2.632043 ┆ 4.303106 │ └─────────────────┴────────┴───────────────────┴─────────────┴──────────────────┴────────────┘ shape: (10, 6) ┌─────────────────┬────────┬───────────────────┬─────────────┬──────────────────┬────────────┐ │ period ┆ seed ┆ Pooled fit (tuned ┆ Fair oracle ┆ Complete pooling ┆ No pooling │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ penalty) ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ str ┆ --- ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 │ │ ┆ ┆ f64 ┆ ┆ ┆ │ ╞═════════════════╪════════╪═══════════════════╪═════════════╪══════════════════╪════════════╡ │ 4 June weeks ┆ seed 1 ┆ 0.059293 ┆ 0.352276 ┆ 0.000073 ┆ 0.896175 │ │ 4 June weeks ┆ seed 2 ┆ 0.074985 ┆ 0.427555 ┆ 0.000097 ┆ 1.125012 │ │ 4 June weeks ┆ seed 3 ┆ 0.03984 ┆ 0.4184 ┆ 0.000041 ┆ 1.012177 │ │ 4 June weeks ┆ seed 4 ┆ 0.02153 ┆ -0.097695 ┆ 0.000022 ┆ -0.527071 │ │ 4 June weeks ┆ seed 5 ┆ -0.015158 ┆ 0.081202 ┆ -0.000035 ┆ -0.052019 │ │ 4 January weeks ┆ seed 1 ┆ 0.320697 ┆ 0.807861 ┆ 0.00058 ┆ 0.763139 │ │ 4 January weeks ┆ seed 2 ┆ 0.323456 ┆ 0.909325 ┆ 0.00057 ┆ 1.049521 │ │ 4 January weeks ┆ seed 3 ┆ 0.2003 ┆ 0.62908 ┆ 0.000352 ┆ 0.941823 │ │ 4 January weeks ┆ seed 4 ┆ 0.498948 ┆ 1.061652 ┆ 0.000483 ┆ 1.390015 │ │ 4 January weeks ┆ seed 5 ┆ 0.277573 ┆ 0.742222 ┆ 0.000621 ┆ 0.902794 │ └─────────────────┴────────┴───────────────────┴─────────────┴──────────────────┴────────────┘ == Decision rule { "n_seeds": 5, "pass_counts": { "a": 4, "b": 2, "b_controls_fail": 3, "c": 2, "d": 5, "e": 5, "control_no_pooling_passes_b": 0, "control_complete_pooling_passes_b": 2 }, "gate_passed": false, "tuning_stable": true, "verdict": "inconclusive", "per_seed": { "20261101": { "a": false, "b": false, "b_controls_fail": true, "c": false, "d": true, "e": true }, "20261102": { "a": true, "b": false, "b_controls_fail": true, "c": true, "d": true, "e": true }, "20261103": { "a": true, "b": false, "b_controls_fail": true, "c": false, "d": true, "e": true }, "20261104": { "a": true, "b": true, "b_controls_fail": false, "c": false, "d": true, "e": true }, "20261105": { "a": true, "b": true, "b_controls_fail": false, "c": true, "d": true, "e": true } } } == Lines (a), (c), (d), (e) per seed seed 20261101: (a) profile rms 0.518, max band error 0.054; (c) slope 0.836; (d) lambda* 1000, truth-best 1000, mae-tuned 1000; (e) within 25%: {'4w': 8, '3m': 8, 'g_4w': 0, 'g_3m': 6} seed 20261102: (a) profile rms 0.402, max band error 0.024; (c) slope 0.940; (d) lambda* 1000, truth-best 300, mae-tuned 300; (e) within 25%: {'4w': 8, '3m': 8, 'g_4w': 0, 'g_3m': 8} seed 20261103: (a) profile rms 0.461, max band error 0.055; (c) slope 0.820; (d) lambda* 1000, truth-best 1000, mae-tuned 300; (e) within 25%: {'4w': 8, '3m': 8, 'g_4w': 0, 'g_3m': 6} seed 20261104: (a) profile rms 0.474, max band error 0.050; (c) slope 0.825; (d) lambda* 300, truth-best 100, mae-tuned 300; (e) within 25%: {'4w': 8, '3m': 8, 'g_4w': 0, 'g_3m': 7} seed 20261105: (a) profile rms 0.363, max band error 0.028; (c) slope 0.910; (d) lambda* 1000, truth-best 1000, mae-tuned 1000; (e) within 25%: {'4w': 8, '3m': 8, 'g_4w': 0, 'g_3m': 5} == Fair oracle capacity ratios (fitted over true), June, per seed seed 20261101: 1.03 1.08 0.96 0.91 1.09 0.99 1.01 1.17 seed 20261102: 1.03 1.03 1.19 1.05 1.02 1.00 1.02 1.20 seed 20261103: 0.99 0.95 0.93 0.95 1.10 1.01 1.10 1.01 seed 20261104: 0.97 1.06 1.11 1.05 1.13 1.02 0.92 1.09 seed 20261105: 1.04 0.97 0.98 1.05 1.00 1.12 0.90 0.91 == Winter (post hoc) line (b) seed 20261101: pooled slope 0.32 rmse 1.87; oracle slope 0.81 rmse 2.37; passes line (b): complete pooling False, no pooling False seed 20261102: pooled slope 0.32 rmse 1.99; oracle slope 0.91 rmse 2.30; passes line (b): complete pooling False, no pooling False seed 20261103: pooled slope 0.20 rmse 1.99; oracle slope 0.63 rmse 2.58; passes line (b): complete pooling False, no pooling False seed 20261104: pooled slope 0.50 rmse 2.26; oracle slope 1.06 rmse 4.06; passes line (b): complete pooling False, no pooling False seed 20261105: pooled slope 0.28 rmse 2.46; oracle slope 0.74 rmse 3.22; passes line (b): complete pooling False, no pooling False