== Tuning (pooled D+1 mean absolute error of the corrected median, tuning rows) ==
chosen: {'L1': 'RW_n1_k0.5', 'RB': 'RB_n3_l0.25_k0.75', 'RBdt': 'RBdt_n4_l0.5_k0.75', 'RW': 'RW_n3_k0.5', 'Rh': 'Rh_k0.75'}
  L1: RW_n1_k0.5 4.3147
  RB: RB_n3_l0.25_k0.75 4.0940
  RBdt: RBdt_n4_l0.5_k0.75 4.0798
  RW: RW_n3_k0.5 4.1517
  Rh: Rh_k0.75 4.1295
  K0: 4.2994
  R-exact: 4.1308
  RB-ref: 4.0977
  RB-ref-placebo: 4.2173
  RB grid (kappa 0.75): RB_n2_l0.25_k0.75=4.1087, RB_n2_l0.5_k0.75=4.1366, RB_n2_l0.75_k0.75=4.2101, RB_n3_l0.25_k0.75=4.0940, RB_n3_l0.5_k0.75=4.0996, RB_n3_l0.75_k0.75=4.1443, RB_n4_l0.25_k0.75=4.0965, RB_n4_l0.5_k0.75=4.0977, RB_n4_l0.75_k0.75=4.1348
== Gate: median share of the injected shift recovered ==
{
 "R": 0.08928571428571426,
 "RB": 0.21453373015873012,
 "RB-placebo": 0.06696428571428571,
 "RB-ref": 0.3180803571428571,
 "RB-ref-placebo": 0.044642857142857144,
 "RBdt": 0.3180803571428571,
 "RW": 0.39351851851851855,
 "Rh": 0.08928571428571426
}
== replicate: planned contrasts (99%), then breakdowns ==
replicate | C1 RB - R | lead band D+1 | -0.0134 [-0.0221, -0.0015] 3/5 sites, rows 41,126; MAE median -0.0224, MAE mean -0.0200
replicate | C1 RB - R | lead band 0-24 h | +0.0094 [-0.0043, +0.0237] 1/5 sites, rows 41,966; MAE median +0.0169, MAE mean +0.0158
replicate | C1 RB - R | lead band 24-48 h | -0.0114 [-0.0207, -0.0011] 4/5 sites, rows 40,622; MAE median -0.0191, MAE mean -0.0167
replicate | C1 RB - R | lead band 48-144 h | +0.0088 [+0.0030, +0.0145] 1/5 sites, rows 148,928; MAE median +0.0165, MAE mean +0.0173
replicate | C1 RB - R | lead band 144-168 h | +0.0026 [-0.0054, +0.0093] 2/5 sites, rows 33,770; MAE median +0.0078, MAE mean +0.0091
replicate | C1 RB - R | lead band 12-36 h | -0.0090 [-0.0187, +0.0039] 3/5 sites, rows 41,294; MAE median -0.0180, MAE mean -0.0157
replicate | C1 RB - R | lead band 0.5-168 h | +0.0050 [-0.0006, +0.0111] 1/5 sites, rows 265,286; MAE median +0.0100, MAE mean +0.0108
replicate | C1 RB - R | leave out D5 | -0.0179 [-0.0251, -0.0088] 3/4 sites, rows 32,726; MAE median -0.0277, MAE mean -0.0265
replicate | C1 RB - R | leave out D10 | -0.0167 [-0.0275, -0.0019] 3/4 sites, rows 33,234; MAE median -0.0295, MAE mean -0.0275
replicate | C1 RB - R | leave out D11 | -0.0143 [-0.0262, +0.0008] 2/4 sites, rows 32,726; MAE median -0.0238, MAE mean -0.0206
replicate | C1 RB - R | leave out D14 | -0.0094 [-0.0171, +0.0010] 2/4 sites, rows 32,966; MAE median -0.0150, MAE mean -0.0121
replicate | C1 RB - R | leave out D16 | -0.0085 [-0.0205, +0.0039] 2/4 sites, rows 32,852; MAE median -0.0160, MAE mean -0.0132
replicate | C1 RB - R | all D+1 | -0.0134 [-0.0221, -0.0015] 3/5 sites, rows 41,126; MAE median -0.0224, MAE mean -0.0200
    absolute {'RB': 2.3206060605242307, 'R': 2.333962413105311}
replicate | C1 RB - R | all leads | +0.0050 [-0.0006, +0.0111] 1/5 sites, rows 265,286; MAE median +0.0100, MAE mean +0.0108
replicate | C1 RB - R | non-holiday rows | -0.0185 [-0.0236, -0.0101] 5/5 sites, rows 38,001; MAE median -0.0306, MAE mean -0.0281
replicate | C1 RB - R | holiday-like days | +0.0491 [-0.0717, +0.0761] 0/5 sites, rows 3,125; MAE median +0.0773, MAE mean +0.0783
replicate | C1 RB - R | Christmas window | +0.0254 [+0.0254, +0.0254] 2/5 sites, rows 4,085; MAE median +0.0470, MAE mean +0.0516
replicate | C1 RB - R | Easter | +0.0251 [+0.0251, +0.0251] 2/5 sites, rows 960; MAE median +0.0802, MAE mean +0.0754
replicate | C1 RB - R | weekday Mon | -0.0476 [-0.0695, -0.0192] 4/5 sites, rows 5,404; MAE median -0.0653, MAE mean -0.0637
replicate | C1 RB - R | weekday Tue | -0.0150 [-0.0238, -0.0047] 5/5 sites, rows 5,452; MAE median -0.0235, MAE mean -0.0214
replicate | C1 RB - R | weekday Wed | +0.0023 [-0.0217, +0.0234] 3/5 sites, rows 5,832; MAE median +0.0042, MAE mean +0.0046
replicate | C1 RB - R | weekday Thu | +0.0024 [-0.0184, +0.0215] 2/5 sites, rows 5,618; MAE median +0.0044, MAE mean +0.0070
replicate | C1 RB - R | weekday Fri | -0.0603 [-0.0831, -0.0485] 5/5 sites, rows 5,333; MAE median -0.1115, MAE mean -0.1066
replicate | C1 RB - R | weekday Sat | -0.0056 [-0.0252, +0.0112] 3/5 sites, rows 5,158; MAE median -0.0064, MAE mean -0.0025
replicate | C1 RB - R | weekday Sun | -0.0077 [-0.0282, +0.0077] 4/5 sites, rows 5,204; MAE median -0.0198, MAE mean -0.0175
replicate | C1 RB - R | winter | -0.0081 [-0.0579, +0.0018] 4/5 sites, rows 13,685; MAE median -0.0179, MAE mean -0.0151
replicate | C1 RB - R | winter evening 16-20 | -0.0360 [-0.0384, -0.0338] 3/5 sites, rows 2,280; MAE median -0.0673, MAE mean -0.0650
replicate | C1 RB - R | non-winter | -0.0160 [-0.0236, -0.0035] 4/5 sites, rows 27,441; MAE median -0.0247, MAE mean -0.0224
replicate | C1 RB - R | cold-snap days | -0.0381 [-0.0381, -0.0381] 5/5 sites, rows 1,248; MAE median -0.0684, MAE mean -0.0674
replicate | C1 RB - R | cold-snap nights | -0.0207 [-0.0207, -0.0207] 3/5 sites, rows 468; MAE median -0.0517, MAE mean -0.0520
replicate | C2 RW - R | lead band D+1 | +0.0126 [-0.0110, +0.0371] 2/5 sites, rows 41,126; MAE median +0.0403, MAE mean +0.0413
replicate | C2 RW - R | lead band 0-24 h | +0.0635 [+0.0258, +0.1063] 0/5 sites, rows 41,966; MAE median +0.1262, MAE mean +0.1250
replicate | C2 RW - R | lead band 24-48 h | +0.0174 [+0.0009, +0.0346] 1/5 sites, rows 40,622; MAE median +0.0469, MAE mean +0.0478
replicate | C2 RW - R | lead band 48-144 h | +0.0629 [+0.0390, +0.0873] 0/5 sites, rows 148,928; MAE median +0.1277, MAE mean +0.1284
replicate | C2 RW - R | lead band 144-168 h | +0.0486 [+0.0046, +0.0977] 0/5 sites, rows 33,770; MAE median +0.0981, MAE mean +0.1006
replicate | C2 RW - R | lead band 12-36 h | +0.0237 [-0.0026, +0.0499] 2/5 sites, rows 41,294; MAE median +0.0539, MAE mean +0.0548
replicate | C2 RW - R | lead band 0.5-168 h | +0.0542 [+0.0298, +0.0812] 0/5 sites, rows 265,286; MAE median +0.1113, MAE mean +0.1120
replicate | C2 RW - R | leave out D5 | -0.0061 [-0.0273, +0.0126] 2/4 sites, rows 32,726; MAE median +0.0090, MAE mean +0.0099
replicate | C2 RW - R | leave out D10 | +0.0041 [-0.0229, +0.0323] 2/4 sites, rows 33,234; MAE median +0.0217, MAE mean +0.0228
replicate | C2 RW - R | leave out D11 | +0.0156 [-0.0185, +0.0518] 2/4 sites, rows 32,726; MAE median +0.0474, MAE mean +0.0489
replicate | C2 RW - R | leave out D14 | +0.0247 [+0.0050, +0.0487] 1/4 sites, rows 32,966; MAE median +0.0614, MAE mean +0.0617
replicate | C2 RW - R | leave out D16 | +0.0250 [+0.0055, +0.0445] 1/4 sites, rows 32,852; MAE median +0.0620, MAE mean +0.0632
replicate | C2 RW - R | all D+1 | +0.0126 [-0.0110, +0.0371] 2/5 sites, rows 41,126; MAE median +0.0403, MAE mean +0.0413
    absolute {'RW': 2.3466037923031093, 'R': 2.333962413105311}
replicate | C2 RW - R | all leads | +0.0542 [+0.0298, +0.0812] 0/5 sites, rows 265,286; MAE median +0.1113, MAE mean +0.1120
replicate | C2 RW - R | non-holiday rows | +0.0101 [-0.0110, +0.0361] 3/5 sites, rows 38,001; MAE median +0.0374, MAE mean +0.0382
replicate | C2 RW - R | holiday-like days | +0.0439 [-0.0911, +0.0716] 0/5 sites, rows 3,125; MAE median +0.0759, MAE mean +0.0791
replicate | C2 RW - R | Christmas window | +0.0425 [+0.0425, +0.0425] 2/5 sites, rows 4,085; MAE median +0.1016, MAE mean +0.1065
replicate | C2 RW - R | Easter | +0.0222 [+0.0222, +0.0222] 2/5 sites, rows 960; MAE median +0.0802, MAE mean +0.0720
replicate | C2 RW - R | weekday Mon | -0.0437 [-0.0896, +0.0177] 3/5 sites, rows 5,404; MAE median -0.0360, MAE mean -0.0384
replicate | C2 RW - R | weekday Tue | +0.0015 [-0.0283, +0.0307] 2/5 sites, rows 5,452; MAE median +0.0293, MAE mean +0.0317
replicate | C2 RW - R | weekday Wed | +0.0368 [+0.0011, +0.0581] 1/5 sites, rows 5,832; MAE median +0.0861, MAE mean +0.0834
replicate | C2 RW - R | weekday Thu | +0.0543 [-0.0184, +0.1069] 0/5 sites, rows 5,618; MAE median +0.1193, MAE mean +0.1228
replicate | C2 RW - R | weekday Fri | -0.0741 [-0.1275, -0.0290] 2/5 sites, rows 5,333; MAE median -0.1424, MAE mean -0.1402
replicate | C2 RW - R | weekday Sat | +0.0469 [-0.0462, +0.1232] 1/5 sites, rows 5,158; MAE median +0.1124, MAE mean +0.1155
replicate | C2 RW - R | weekday Sun | +0.0470 [-0.0071, +0.0996] 0/5 sites, rows 5,204; MAE median +0.0888, MAE mean +0.0887
replicate | C2 RW - R | winter | +0.0022 [-0.0535, +0.0175] 2/5 sites, rows 13,685; MAE median +0.0116, MAE mean +0.0151
replicate | C2 RW - R | winter evening 16-20 | -0.0705 [-0.0900, -0.0529] 5/5 sites, rows 2,280; MAE median -0.1088, MAE mean -0.1049
replicate | C2 RW - R | non-winter | +0.0178 [-0.0092, +0.0472] 2/5 sites, rows 27,441; MAE median +0.0546, MAE mean +0.0544
replicate | C2 RW - R | cold-snap days | -0.0368 [-0.0368, -0.0368] 3/5 sites, rows 1,248; MAE median -0.0610, MAE mean -0.0636
replicate | C2 RW - R | cold-snap nights | +0.0909 [+0.0909, +0.0909] 0/5 sites, rows 468; MAE median +0.1811, MAE mean +0.1807
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | lead band D+1 | -0.1049 [-0.1916, -0.0382] 5/5 sites, rows 41,126; MAE median -0.2114, MAE mean -0.2106
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | lead band 0-24 h | -0.0886 [-0.1843, -0.0284] 5/5 sites, rows 41,966; MAE median -0.1845, MAE mean -0.1841
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | lead band 24-48 h | -0.0958 [-0.1868, -0.0244] 5/5 sites, rows 40,622; MAE median -0.1994, MAE mean -0.1991
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | lead band 48-144 h | -0.0629 [-0.1477, -0.0017] 5/5 sites, rows 148,928; MAE median -0.1405, MAE mean -0.1442
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | lead band 144-168 h | -0.0570 [-0.1370, +0.0133] 5/5 sites, rows 33,770; MAE median -0.1179, MAE mean -0.1262
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | lead band 12-36 h | -0.1046 [-0.1910, -0.0386] 5/5 sites, rows 41,294; MAE median -0.2148, MAE mean -0.2139
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | lead band 0.5-168 h | -0.0712 [-0.1576, -0.0087] 5/5 sites, rows 265,286; MAE median -0.1536, MAE mean -0.1566
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | leave out D5 | -0.0908 [-0.1537, -0.0472] 4/4 sites, rows 32,726; MAE median -0.1835, MAE mean -0.1839
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | leave out D10 | -0.1076 [-0.2074, -0.0319] 4/4 sites, rows 33,234; MAE median -0.2128, MAE mean -0.2130
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | leave out D11 | -0.1222 [-0.2132, -0.0525] 4/4 sites, rows 32,726; MAE median -0.2447, MAE mean -0.2434
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | leave out D14 | -0.1043 [-0.1950, -0.0334] 4/4 sites, rows 32,966; MAE median -0.2093, MAE mean -0.2072
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | leave out D16 | -0.0993 [-0.1879, -0.0305] 4/4 sites, rows 32,852; MAE median -0.2067, MAE mean -0.2054
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | all D+1 | -0.1049 [-0.1916, -0.0382] 5/5 sites, rows 41,126; MAE median -0.2114, MAE mean -0.2106
    absolute {'RB': 2.3206060605242307, 'K0': 2.4254616837056626}
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | all leads | -0.0712 [-0.1576, -0.0087] 5/5 sites, rows 265,286; MAE median -0.1536, MAE mean -0.1566
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | non-holiday rows | -0.1139 [-0.2040, -0.0392] 5/5 sites, rows 38,001; MAE median -0.2287, MAE mean -0.2279
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | holiday-like days | +0.0048 [-0.0171, +0.0264] 1/5 sites, rows 3,125; MAE median -0.0011, MAE mean +0.0000
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | Christmas window | -0.0627 [-0.0627, -0.0627] 5/5 sites, rows 4,085; MAE median -0.1267, MAE mean -0.1245
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | Easter | -0.0171 [-0.0171, -0.0171] 4/5 sites, rows 960; MAE median -0.0005, MAE mean +0.0054
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | weekday Mon | -0.1457 [-0.2662, -0.0420] 5/5 sites, rows 5,404; MAE median -0.2538, MAE mean -0.2527
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | weekday Tue | -0.1019 [-0.1657, -0.0380] 5/5 sites, rows 5,452; MAE median -0.2107, MAE mean -0.2092
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | weekday Wed | -0.0705 [-0.2082, +0.0275] 5/5 sites, rows 5,832; MAE median -0.1684, MAE mean -0.1694
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | weekday Thu | -0.0814 [-0.1736, -0.0160] 4/5 sites, rows 5,618; MAE median -0.1745, MAE mean -0.1768
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | weekday Fri | -0.1788 [-0.2663, -0.0735] 5/5 sites, rows 5,333; MAE median -0.3355, MAE mean -0.3343
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | weekday Sat | -0.0982 [-0.1448, -0.0304] 5/5 sites, rows 5,158; MAE median -0.2068, MAE mean -0.2007
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | weekday Sun | -0.1260 [-0.2020, -0.0542] 5/5 sites, rows 5,204; MAE median -0.2601, MAE mean -0.2604
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | winter | -0.0824 [-0.1775, -0.0687] 5/5 sites, rows 13,685; MAE median -0.1692, MAE mean -0.1691
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | winter evening 16-20 | -0.0574 [-0.0827, -0.0292] 3/5 sites, rows 2,280; MAE median -0.1962, MAE mean -0.1975
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | non-winter | -0.1160 [-0.2502, -0.0260] 5/5 sites, rows 27,441; MAE median -0.2325, MAE mean -0.2313
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | cold-snap days | -0.1370 [-0.1370, -0.1370] 4/5 sites, rows 1,248; MAE median -0.2843, MAE mean -0.2665
replicate | C3 RB - K0 | cold-snap nights | -0.3834 [-0.3834, -0.3834] 5/5 sites, rows 468; MAE median -0.7602, MAE mean -0.7606
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | lead band D+1 | -0.1042 [-0.1506, -0.0717] 5/5 sites, rows 41,126; MAE median -0.2006, MAE mean -0.1984
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | lead band 0-24 h | -0.1257 [-0.1807, -0.0904] 5/5 sites, rows 41,966; MAE median -0.2323, MAE mean -0.2338
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | lead band 24-48 h | -0.1054 [-0.1474, -0.0728] 5/5 sites, rows 40,622; MAE median -0.2020, MAE mean -0.1999
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | lead band 48-144 h | -0.1136 [-0.1469, -0.0813] 5/5 sites, rows 148,928; MAE median -0.2203, MAE mean -0.2184
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | lead band 144-168 h | -0.0934 [-0.1274, -0.0522] 5/5 sites, rows 33,770; MAE median -0.1766, MAE mean -0.1773
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | lead band 12-36 h | -0.1129 [-0.1567, -0.0803] 5/5 sites, rows 41,294; MAE median -0.2126, MAE mean -0.2101
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | lead band 0.5-168 h | -0.1117 [-0.1477, -0.0788] 5/5 sites, rows 265,286; MAE median -0.2138, MAE mean -0.2127
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | leave out D5 | -0.0867 [-0.1353, -0.0570] 4/4 sites, rows 32,726; MAE median -0.1732, MAE mean -0.1727
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | leave out D10 | -0.0966 [-0.1405, -0.0623] 4/4 sites, rows 33,234; MAE median -0.1843, MAE mean -0.1823
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | leave out D11 | -0.1047 [-0.1590, -0.0669] 4/4 sites, rows 32,726; MAE median -0.1980, MAE mean -0.1951
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | leave out D14 | -0.1156 [-0.1631, -0.0808] 4/4 sites, rows 32,966; MAE median -0.2208, MAE mean -0.2175
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | leave out D16 | -0.1174 [-0.1552, -0.0887] 4/4 sites, rows 32,852; MAE median -0.2269, MAE mean -0.2243
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | all D+1 | -0.1042 [-0.1506, -0.0717] 5/5 sites, rows 41,126; MAE median -0.2006, MAE mean -0.1984
    absolute {'RB': 2.3206060605242307, 'L1': 2.424818012229742}
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | all leads | -0.1117 [-0.1477, -0.0788] 5/5 sites, rows 265,286; MAE median -0.2138, MAE mean -0.2127
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | non-holiday rows | -0.1131 [-0.1543, -0.0818] 5/5 sites, rows 38,001; MAE median -0.2164, MAE mean -0.2144
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | holiday-like days | +0.0036 [+0.0017, +0.0173] 2/5 sites, rows 3,125; MAE median -0.0092, MAE mean -0.0033
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | Christmas window | -0.0329 [-0.0329, -0.0329] 5/5 sites, rows 4,085; MAE median -0.0664, MAE mean -0.0647
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | Easter | +0.0039 [+0.0039, +0.0039] 3/5 sites, rows 960; MAE median -0.0276, MAE mean -0.0009
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | weekday Mon | -0.0593 [-0.1200, +0.0209] 4/5 sites, rows 5,404; MAE median -0.1053, MAE mean -0.1015
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | weekday Tue | -0.1325 [-0.1722, -0.0927] 5/5 sites, rows 5,452; MAE median -0.2497, MAE mean -0.2514
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | weekday Wed | -0.1161 [-0.1598, -0.0648] 5/5 sites, rows 5,832; MAE median -0.2103, MAE mean -0.2065
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | weekday Thu | -0.1747 [-0.3249, -0.0863] 5/5 sites, rows 5,618; MAE median -0.3619, MAE mean -0.3652
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | weekday Fri | -0.0498 [-0.1500, +0.0063] 4/5 sites, rows 5,333; MAE median -0.0975, MAE mean -0.0948
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | weekday Sat | -0.1202 [-0.2619, +0.0404] 5/5 sites, rows 5,158; MAE median -0.2326, MAE mean -0.2275
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | weekday Sun | -0.1365 [-0.1974, -0.0605] 5/5 sites, rows 5,204; MAE median -0.2522, MAE mean -0.2487
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | winter | -0.0702 [-0.3756, -0.0637] 5/5 sites, rows 13,685; MAE median -0.1359, MAE mean -0.1365
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | winter evening 16-20 | -0.0647 [-0.0703, -0.0596] 4/5 sites, rows 2,280; MAE median -0.1606, MAE mean -0.1648
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | non-winter | -0.1212 [-0.1781, -0.0890] 5/5 sites, rows 27,441; MAE median -0.2329, MAE mean -0.2292
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | cold-snap days | -0.0445 [-0.0445, -0.0445] 4/5 sites, rows 1,248; MAE median -0.0838, MAE mean -0.0845
replicate | C4 RB - L1 | cold-snap nights | -0.1042 [-0.1042, -0.1042] 4/5 sites, rows 468; MAE median -0.1867, MAE mean -0.1884
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | lead band D+1 | -0.0145 [-0.0275, -0.0084] 5/5 sites, rows 41,126; MAE median -0.0200, MAE mean -0.0211
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | lead band 0-24 h | +0.0012 [-0.0047, +0.0074] 3/5 sites, rows 41,966; MAE median +0.0042, MAE mean +0.0050
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | lead band 24-48 h | -0.0076 [-0.0164, -0.0037] 4/5 sites, rows 40,622; MAE median -0.0056, MAE mean -0.0063
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | lead band 48-144 h | +0.0110 [+0.0035, +0.0168] 0/5 sites, rows 148,928; MAE median +0.0210, MAE mean +0.0203
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | lead band 144-168 h | +0.0110 [-0.0053, +0.0241] 1/5 sites, rows 33,770; MAE median +0.0191, MAE mean +0.0151
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | lead band 12-36 h | -0.0114 [-0.0222, -0.0061] 5/5 sites, rows 41,294; MAE median -0.0161, MAE mean -0.0173
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | lead band 0.5-168 h | +0.0066 [-0.0008, +0.0119] 1/5 sites, rows 265,286; MAE median +0.0140, MAE mean +0.0132
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | leave out D5 | -0.0160 [-0.0320, -0.0058] 4/4 sites, rows 32,726; MAE median -0.0250, MAE mean -0.0255
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | leave out D10 | -0.0172 [-0.0296, -0.0099] 4/4 sites, rows 33,234; MAE median -0.0239, MAE mean -0.0250
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | leave out D11 | -0.0165 [-0.0311, -0.0101] 4/4 sites, rows 32,726; MAE median -0.0224, MAE mean -0.0240
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | leave out D14 | -0.0113 [-0.0247, -0.0041] 4/4 sites, rows 32,966; MAE median -0.0144, MAE mean -0.0155
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | leave out D16 | -0.0118 [-0.0217, -0.0051] 4/4 sites, rows 32,852; MAE median -0.0141, MAE mean -0.0156
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | all D+1 | -0.0145 [-0.0275, -0.0084] 5/5 sites, rows 41,126; MAE median -0.0200, MAE mean -0.0211
    absolute {'RB-day-types': 2.3060661593773046, 'RB': 2.3206060605242307}
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | all leads | +0.0066 [-0.0008, +0.0119] 1/5 sites, rows 265,286; MAE median +0.0140, MAE mean +0.0132
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | non-holiday rows | -0.0151 [-0.0280, -0.0085] 5/5 sites, rows 38,001; MAE median -0.0210, MAE mean -0.0227
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | holiday-like days | -0.0076 [-0.0100, -0.0033] 3/5 sites, rows 3,125; MAE median -0.0078, MAE mean -0.0011
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | Christmas window | -0.0080 [-0.0080, -0.0080] 3/5 sites, rows 4,085; MAE median -0.0084, MAE mean -0.0054
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | Easter | -0.0041 [-0.0041, -0.0041] 4/5 sites, rows 960; MAE median -0.0022, MAE mean -0.0057
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | weekday Mon | -0.0294 [-0.0590, -0.0008] 3/5 sites, rows 5,404; MAE median -0.0405, MAE mean -0.0439
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | weekday Tue | -0.0095 [-0.0198, +0.0007] 4/5 sites, rows 5,452; MAE median -0.0070, MAE mean -0.0090
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | weekday Wed | -0.0196 [-0.0377, +0.0053] 5/5 sites, rows 5,832; MAE median -0.0269, MAE mean -0.0312
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | weekday Thu | -0.0059 [-0.0278, +0.0148] 3/5 sites, rows 5,618; MAE median -0.0054, MAE mean -0.0034
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | weekday Fri | -0.0413 [-0.0661, -0.0129] 4/5 sites, rows 5,333; MAE median -0.0809, MAE mean -0.0852
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | weekday Sat | +0.0065 [-0.0221, +0.0267] 2/5 sites, rows 5,158; MAE median +0.0245, MAE mean +0.0260
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | weekday Sun | -0.0056 [-0.0327, +0.0197] 3/5 sites, rows 5,204; MAE median -0.0091, MAE mean -0.0108
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | winter | -0.0246 [-0.0365, -0.0138] 5/5 sites, rows 13,685; MAE median -0.0427, MAE mean -0.0425
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | winter evening 16-20 | -0.0376 [-0.0516, -0.0250] 4/5 sites, rows 2,280; MAE median -0.0696, MAE mean -0.0688
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | non-winter | -0.0095 [-0.0115, -0.0074] 5/5 sites, rows 27,441; MAE median -0.0086, MAE mean -0.0104
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | cold-snap days | -0.0388 [-0.0388, -0.0388] 4/5 sites, rows 1,248; MAE median -0.0745, MAE mean -0.0817
replicate | C5 RB-day-types - RB | cold-snap nights | -0.0230 [-0.0230, -0.0230] 3/5 sites, rows 468; MAE median -0.0597, MAE mean -0.0592
== replicate: other contrasts (95%) ==
replicate | C6 RB - Rh (diagnostic) | all D+1 | -0.0178 [-0.0201, -0.0148] 3/5 sites, rows 41,126; MAE median -0.0291, MAE mean -0.0267
replicate | C6 RB - Rh (diagnostic) | all leads | +0.0008 [-0.0020, +0.0029] 2/5 sites, rows 265,286; MAE median +0.0031, MAE mean +0.0038
replicate | C6 RB - Rh (diagnostic) | non-holiday rows | -0.0194 [-0.0225, -0.0161] 3/5 sites, rows 38,001; MAE median -0.0313, MAE mean -0.0290
replicate | C6 RB - Rh (diagnostic) | winter | -0.0196 [-0.0579, -0.0183] 5/5 sites, rows 13,685; MAE median -0.0338, MAE mean -0.0306
replicate | C6 RB - Rh (diagnostic) | winter evening 16-20 | -0.0387 [-0.0416, -0.0360] 4/5 sites, rows 2,280; MAE median -0.0628, MAE mean -0.0605
replicate | Rh - R | all D+1 | +0.0045 [-0.0020, +0.0122] 0/5 sites, rows 41,126; MAE median +0.0067, MAE mean +0.0067
replicate | Rh - R | all leads | +0.0042 [-0.0004, +0.0093] 0/5 sites, rows 265,286; MAE median +0.0069, MAE mean +0.0070
replicate | Rh - R | non-holiday rows | +0.0009 [-0.0019, +0.0043] 2/5 sites, rows 38,001; MAE median +0.0007, MAE mean +0.0009
replicate | Rh - R | winter | +0.0116 [+0.0000, +0.0201] 1/5 sites, rows 13,685; MAE median +0.0159, MAE mean +0.0155
replicate | Rh - R | winter evening 16-20 | +0.0027 [+0.0022, +0.0033] 3/5 sites, rows 2,280; MAE median -0.0045, MAE mean -0.0045
replicate | R - K0 | all D+1 | -0.0915 [-0.1510, -0.0365] 5/5 sites, rows 41,126; MAE median -0.1890, MAE mean -0.1906
replicate | R - K0 | all leads | -0.0762 [-0.1369, -0.0243] 5/5 sites, rows 265,286; MAE median -0.1636, MAE mean -0.1674
replicate | R - K0 | non-holiday rows | -0.0954 [-0.1556, -0.0371] 5/5 sites, rows 38,001; MAE median -0.1981, MAE mean -0.1998
replicate | R - K0 | winter | -0.0744 [-0.1195, -0.0498] 5/5 sites, rows 13,685; MAE median -0.1513, MAE mean -0.1540
replicate | R - K0 | winter evening 16-20 | -0.0214 [-0.0489, +0.0091] 3/5 sites, rows 2,280; MAE median -0.1289, MAE mean -0.1324
replicate | RB-day-types - R | all D+1 | -0.0279 [-0.0414, -0.0161] 5/5 sites, rows 41,126; MAE median -0.0424, MAE mean -0.0411
replicate | RB-day-types - R | all leads | +0.0116 [+0.0031, +0.0177] 0/5 sites, rows 265,286; MAE median +0.0240, MAE mean +0.0240
replicate | RB-day-types - R | non-holiday rows | -0.0336 [-0.0445, -0.0232] 5/5 sites, rows 38,001; MAE median -0.0516, MAE mean -0.0508
replicate | RB-day-types - R | winter | -0.0326 [-0.0743, -0.0120] 4/5 sites, rows 13,685; MAE median -0.0606, MAE mean -0.0576
replicate | RB-day-types - R | winter evening 16-20 | -0.0736 [-0.0899, -0.0588] 4/5 sites, rows 2,280; MAE median -0.1369, MAE mean -0.1338
replicate | D9 absolute D+1: K0 1.942, R 1.836, Rh 1.841, L1 1.940, RW 1.876, RB 1.837, RB-day-types 1.842
replicate | absolute on rows every arm holds:
    K0: D+1 2.425, all leads 2.756
    R: D+1 2.334, all leads 2.679
    Rh: D+1 2.338, all leads 2.684
    L1: D+1 2.425, all leads 2.796
    RW: D+1 2.347, all leads 2.734
    RB: D+1 2.321, all leads 2.684
    RB-day-types: D+1 2.306, all leads 2.691
replicate | tails at D+1 (coverage gap pts, pinball):
    K0: q01 +1.38 0.2149, q05 +1.55 0.6587, q95 -0.89 0.5995, q99 -0.61 0.1653
    R: q01 +1.58 0.2116, q05 +1.62 0.6388, q95 -0.49 0.5930, q99 -0.53 0.1656
    Rh: q01 +1.56 0.2122, q05 +1.66 0.6408, q95 -0.56 0.5930, q99 -0.55 0.1660
    RB: q01 +1.48 0.2089, q05 +1.65 0.6316, q95 -0.49 0.5911, q99 -0.49 0.1654
replicate | median minus mean forecast at D+1, per site:
    K0: D10 +0.003, D11 -0.023, D14 +0.005, D16 -0.011, D5 -0.082
    R: D10 +0.007, D11 -0.022, D14 +0.000, D16 -0.010, D5 -0.026
    Rh: D10 -0.002, D11 -0.010, D14 -0.002, D16 -0.014, D5 -0.033
    RB: D10 -0.013, D11 -0.014, D14 -0.014, D16 -0.002, D5 -0.038
replicate | COPY7 subset (rows with a reading 7 days earlier): COPY7 D+1 6.565 all leads 6.572, K0 D+1 2.425 all leads 2.756, RB D+1 2.321 all leads 2.684, R D+1 2.334 all leads 2.679
== scored: planned contrasts (99%), then breakdowns ==
scored | C1 RB - R | lead band D+1 | -0.0112 [-0.0234, +0.0030] 3/5 sites, rows 66,844; MAE median -0.0183, MAE mean -0.0183
scored | C1 RB - R | lead band 0-24 h | +0.0066 [-0.0017, +0.0192] 1/5 sites, rows 66,818; MAE median +0.0087, MAE mean +0.0083
scored | C1 RB - R | lead band 24-48 h | -0.0119 [-0.0213, +0.0003] 3/5 sites, rows 66,785; MAE median -0.0179, MAE mean -0.0179
scored | C1 RB - R | lead band 48-144 h | +0.0108 [+0.0055, +0.0181] 0/5 sites, rows 264,935; MAE median +0.0230, MAE mean +0.0236
scored | C1 RB - R | lead band 144-168 h | +0.0056 [-0.0012, +0.0122] 0/5 sites, rows 65,825; MAE median +0.0126, MAE mean +0.0126
scored | C1 RB - R | lead band 12-36 h | -0.0084 [-0.0203, +0.0057] 3/5 sites, rows 66,838; MAE median -0.0152, MAE mean -0.0154
scored | C1 RB - R | lead band 0.5-168 h | +0.0062 [+0.0016, +0.0138] 0/5 sites, rows 464,363; MAE median +0.0136, MAE mean +0.0139
scored | C1 RB - R | leave out D5 | -0.0120 [-0.0245, +0.0049] 2/4 sites, rows 54,721; MAE median -0.0196, MAE mean -0.0198
scored | C1 RB - R | leave out D10 | -0.0161 [-0.0274, -0.0043] 3/4 sites, rows 52,996; MAE median -0.0272, MAE mean -0.0274
scored | C1 RB - R | leave out D11 | -0.0153 [-0.0293, +0.0000] 3/4 sites, rows 52,879; MAE median -0.0242, MAE mean -0.0239
scored | C1 RB - R | leave out D14 | -0.0053 [-0.0166, +0.0089] 2/4 sites, rows 53,174; MAE median -0.0083, MAE mean -0.0087
scored | C1 RB - R | leave out D16 | -0.0076 [-0.0209, +0.0084] 2/4 sites, rows 53,606; MAE median -0.0121, MAE mean -0.0119
scored | C1 RB - R | all D+1 | -0.0112 [-0.0234, +0.0030] 3/5 sites, rows 66,844; MAE median -0.0183, MAE mean -0.0183
    absolute {'RB': 2.4244125022050143, 'R': 2.4356286664071933}
scored | C1 RB - R | all leads | +0.0062 [+0.0016, +0.0138] 0/5 sites, rows 464,363; MAE median +0.0136, MAE mean +0.0139
scored | C1 RB - R | non-holiday rows | -0.0135 [-0.0243, -0.0034] 3/5 sites, rows 64,218; MAE median -0.0216, MAE mean -0.0218
scored | C1 RB - R | holiday-like days | +0.0454 [-0.0937, +0.1704] 1/5 sites, rows 2,626; MAE median +0.0636, MAE mean +0.0658
scored | C1 RB - R | Christmas window | +0.0726 [+0.0285, +0.0842] 0/4 sites, rows 3,453; MAE median +0.1235, MAE mean +0.1205
scored | C1 RB - R | Easter | -0.0835 [-0.0835, -0.0835] 3/5 sites, rows 720; MAE median -0.1812, MAE mean -0.1626
scored | C1 RB - R | weekday Mon | -0.0375 [-0.0575, -0.0165] 4/5 sites, rows 8,539; MAE median -0.0611, MAE mean -0.0627
scored | C1 RB - R | weekday Tue | +0.0044 [-0.0112, +0.0175] 1/5 sites, rows 9,391; MAE median +0.0064, MAE mean +0.0052
scored | C1 RB - R | weekday Wed | +0.0069 [-0.0101, +0.0229] 2/5 sites, rows 9,085; MAE median +0.0192, MAE mean +0.0179
scored | C1 RB - R | weekday Thu | -0.0043 [-0.0149, +0.0064] 3/5 sites, rows 9,285; MAE median -0.0058, MAE mean -0.0051
scored | C1 RB - R | weekday Fri | -0.0525 [-0.0819, -0.0218] 5/5 sites, rows 9,471; MAE median -0.1030, MAE mean -0.1033
scored | C1 RB - R | weekday Sat | -0.0113 [-0.0389, +0.0122] 4/5 sites, rows 9,149; MAE median -0.0118, MAE mean -0.0125
scored | C1 RB - R | weekday Sun | -0.0014 [-0.0198, +0.0182] 2/5 sites, rows 9,298; MAE median +0.0040, MAE mean +0.0072
scored | C1 RB - R | winter | -0.0115 [-0.0364, +0.0271] 3/5 sites, rows 26,422; MAE median -0.0200, MAE mean -0.0206
scored | C1 RB - R | winter evening 16-20 | -0.0488 [-0.0654, -0.0333] 5/5 sites, rows 4,416; MAE median -0.0886, MAE mean -0.0899
scored | C1 RB - R | non-winter | -0.0110 [-0.0185, -0.0013] 3/5 sites, rows 40,422; MAE median -0.0171, MAE mean -0.0169
scored | C1 RB - R | cold-snap days | +0.0036 [-0.1191, +0.1565] 2/5 sites, rows 2,400; MAE median +0.0018, MAE mean -0.0013
scored | C1 RB - R | cold-snap nights | +0.0156 [-0.1101, +0.1257] 2/5 sites, rows 900; MAE median +0.0119, MAE mean +0.0093
scored | C2 RW - R | lead band D+1 | +0.0165 [-0.0073, +0.0432] 2/5 sites, rows 66,844; MAE median +0.0436, MAE mean +0.0439
scored | C2 RW - R | lead band 0-24 h | +0.0662 [+0.0457, +0.0890] 0/5 sites, rows 66,818; MAE median +0.1220, MAE mean +0.1214
scored | C2 RW - R | lead band 24-48 h | +0.0189 [+0.0025, +0.0380] 1/5 sites, rows 66,785; MAE median +0.0505, MAE mean +0.0513
scored | C2 RW - R | lead band 48-144 h | +0.0692 [+0.0581, +0.0787] 0/5 sites, rows 264,935; MAE median +0.1447, MAE mean +0.1457
scored | C2 RW - R | lead band 144-168 h | +0.0510 [+0.0330, +0.0665] 0/5 sites, rows 65,825; MAE median +0.1092, MAE mean +0.1116
scored | C2 RW - R | lead band 12-36 h | +0.0235 [+0.0014, +0.0503] 2/5 sites, rows 66,838; MAE median +0.0524, MAE mean +0.0526
scored | C2 RW - R | lead band 0.5-168 h | +0.0590 [+0.0507, +0.0684] 0/5 sites, rows 464,363; MAE median +0.1228, MAE mean +0.1238
scored | C2 RW - R | leave out D5 | +0.0079 [-0.0177, +0.0352] 2/4 sites, rows 54,721; MAE median +0.0278, MAE mean +0.0278
scored | C2 RW - R | leave out D10 | +0.0058 [-0.0178, +0.0318] 2/4 sites, rows 52,996; MAE median +0.0224, MAE mean +0.0229
scored | C2 RW - R | leave out D11 | +0.0124 [-0.0135, +0.0423] 2/4 sites, rows 52,879; MAE median +0.0408, MAE mean +0.0410
scored | C2 RW - R | leave out D14 | +0.0315 [+0.0088, +0.0561] 1/4 sites, rows 53,174; MAE median +0.0692, MAE mean +0.0694
scored | C2 RW - R | leave out D16 | +0.0248 [-0.0003, +0.0520] 1/4 sites, rows 53,606; MAE median +0.0578, MAE mean +0.0589
scored | C2 RW - R | all D+1 | +0.0165 [-0.0073, +0.0432] 2/5 sites, rows 66,844; MAE median +0.0436, MAE mean +0.0439
    absolute {'RW': 2.4520890764695307, 'R': 2.4356286664071933}
scored | C2 RW - R | all leads | +0.0590 [+0.0507, +0.0684] 0/5 sites, rows 464,363; MAE median +0.1228, MAE mean +0.1238
scored | C2 RW - R | non-holiday rows | +0.0156 [-0.0068, +0.0453] 2/5 sites, rows 64,218; MAE median +0.0426, MAE mean +0.0429
scored | C2 RW - R | holiday-like days | +0.0383 [-0.1030, +0.1553] 1/5 sites, rows 2,626; MAE median +0.0668, MAE mean +0.0697
scored | C2 RW - R | Christmas window | +0.1156 [+0.0921, +0.1217] 0/4 sites, rows 3,453; MAE median +0.2293, MAE mean +0.2240
scored | C2 RW - R | Easter | -0.0790 [-0.0790, -0.0790] 3/5 sites, rows 720; MAE median -0.1816, MAE mean -0.1584
scored | C2 RW - R | weekday Mon | -0.0506 [-0.1007, +0.0094] 2/5 sites, rows 8,539; MAE median -0.0694, MAE mean -0.0723
scored | C2 RW - R | weekday Tue | +0.0387 [-0.0042, +0.0771] 1/5 sites, rows 9,391; MAE median +0.0863, MAE mean +0.0854
scored | C2 RW - R | weekday Wed | +0.0628 [+0.0248, +0.1104] 0/5 sites, rows 9,085; MAE median +0.1307, MAE mean +0.1308
scored | C2 RW - R | weekday Thu | +0.0539 [+0.0300, +0.0765] 0/5 sites, rows 9,285; MAE median +0.1048, MAE mean +0.1055
scored | C2 RW - R | weekday Fri | -0.0534 [-0.1198, +0.0294] 3/5 sites, rows 9,471; MAE median -0.1127, MAE mean -0.1146
scored | C2 RW - R | weekday Sat | +0.0166 [-0.0543, +0.0790] 2/5 sites, rows 9,149; MAE median +0.0550, MAE mean +0.0580
scored | C2 RW - R | weekday Sun | +0.0377 [-0.0264, +0.0962] 2/5 sites, rows 9,298; MAE median +0.0992, MAE mean +0.1027
scored | C2 RW - R | winter | +0.0180 [-0.0245, +0.0671] 2/5 sites, rows 26,422; MAE median +0.0425, MAE mean +0.0410
scored | C2 RW - R | winter evening 16-20 | -0.0631 [-0.1006, -0.0266] 2/5 sites, rows 4,416; MAE median -0.0970, MAE mean -0.0982
scored | C2 RW - R | non-winter | +0.0155 [-0.0117, +0.0475] 2/5 sites, rows 40,422; MAE median +0.0442, MAE mean +0.0459
scored | C2 RW - R | cold-snap days | +0.0072 [-0.2491, +0.1491] 2/5 sites, rows 2,400; MAE median +0.0383, MAE mean +0.0334
scored | C2 RW - R | cold-snap nights | +0.0307 [-0.1472, +0.1596] 3/5 sites, rows 900; MAE median +0.0834, MAE mean +0.0805
scored | C3 RB - K0 | lead band D+1 | -0.0998 [-0.1423, -0.0654] 5/5 sites, rows 66,844; MAE median -0.1955, MAE mean -0.1977
scored | C3 RB - K0 | lead band 0-24 h | -0.0849 [-0.1246, -0.0557] 5/5 sites, rows 66,818; MAE median -0.1704, MAE mean -0.1704
scored | C3 RB - K0 | lead band 24-48 h | -0.0939 [-0.1328, -0.0600] 5/5 sites, rows 66,785; MAE median -0.1891, MAE mean -0.1904
scored | C3 RB - K0 | lead band 48-144 h | -0.0524 [-0.0853, -0.0264] 5/5 sites, rows 264,935; MAE median -0.1183, MAE mean -0.1206
scored | C3 RB - K0 | lead band 144-168 h | -0.0454 [-0.0783, -0.0168] 5/5 sites, rows 65,825; MAE median -0.1040, MAE mean -0.1092
scored | C3 RB - K0 | lead band 12-36 h | -0.0990 [-0.1419, -0.0642] 5/5 sites, rows 66,838; MAE median -0.1955, MAE mean -0.1977
scored | C3 RB - K0 | lead band 0.5-168 h | -0.0621 [-0.0963, -0.0348] 5/5 sites, rows 464,363; MAE median -0.1340, MAE mean -0.1362
scored | C3 RB - K0 | leave out D5 | -0.0968 [-0.1343, -0.0633] 4/4 sites, rows 54,721; MAE median -0.1849, MAE mean -0.1861
scored | C3 RB - K0 | leave out D10 | -0.0962 [-0.1362, -0.0655] 4/4 sites, rows 52,996; MAE median -0.1849, MAE mean -0.1878
scored | C3 RB - K0 | leave out D11 | -0.1169 [-0.1691, -0.0767] 4/4 sites, rows 52,879; MAE median -0.2310, MAE mean -0.2327
scored | C3 RB - K0 | leave out D14 | -0.0945 [-0.1361, -0.0628] 4/4 sites, rows 53,174; MAE median -0.1922, MAE mean -0.1952
scored | C3 RB - K0 | leave out D16 | -0.0948 [-0.1446, -0.0579] 4/4 sites, rows 53,606; MAE median -0.1849, MAE mean -0.1871
scored | C3 RB - K0 | all D+1 | -0.0998 [-0.1423, -0.0654] 5/5 sites, rows 66,844; MAE median -0.1955, MAE mean -0.1977
    absolute {'RB': 2.4244125022050143, 'K0': 2.524218773648168}
scored | C3 RB - K0 | all leads | -0.0621 [-0.0963, -0.0348] 5/5 sites, rows 464,363; MAE median -0.1340, MAE mean -0.1362
scored | C3 RB - K0 | non-holiday rows | -0.1043 [-0.1461, -0.0686] 5/5 sites, rows 64,218; MAE median -0.2034, MAE mean -0.2056
scored | C3 RB - K0 | holiday-like days | +0.0089 [-0.0101, +0.0166] 3/5 sites, rows 2,626; MAE median -0.0023, MAE mean -0.0027
scored | C3 RB - K0 | Christmas window | -0.0649 [-0.0782, -0.0142] 4/4 sites, rows 3,453; MAE median -0.1246, MAE mean -0.1267
scored | C3 RB - K0 | Easter | +0.0183 [+0.0183, +0.0183] 1/5 sites, rows 720; MAE median +0.0100, MAE mean +0.0023
scored | C3 RB - K0 | weekday Mon | -0.0760 [-0.1179, -0.0352] 5/5 sites, rows 8,539; MAE median -0.1431, MAE mean -0.1490
scored | C3 RB - K0 | weekday Tue | -0.0628 [-0.1055, -0.0245] 5/5 sites, rows 9,391; MAE median -0.1371, MAE mean -0.1392
scored | C3 RB - K0 | weekday Wed | -0.0863 [-0.1632, -0.0129] 5/5 sites, rows 9,085; MAE median -0.1681, MAE mean -0.1728
scored | C3 RB - K0 | weekday Thu | -0.1297 [-0.1758, -0.0741] 5/5 sites, rows 9,285; MAE median -0.2358, MAE mean -0.2354
scored | C3 RB - K0 | weekday Fri | -0.1563 [-0.2035, -0.1098] 5/5 sites, rows 9,471; MAE median -0.3177, MAE mean -0.3211
scored | C3 RB - K0 | weekday Sat | -0.1216 [-0.1954, -0.0647] 5/5 sites, rows 9,149; MAE median -0.2327, MAE mean -0.2345
scored | C3 RB - K0 | weekday Sun | -0.0941 [-0.1857, -0.0156] 5/5 sites, rows 9,298; MAE median -0.1825, MAE mean -0.1811
scored | C3 RB - K0 | winter | -0.1471 [-0.2053, -0.1034] 5/5 sites, rows 26,422; MAE median -0.2808, MAE mean -0.2786
scored | C3 RB - K0 | winter evening 16-20 | -0.1671 [-0.2505, -0.0919] 5/5 sites, rows 4,416; MAE median -0.3670, MAE mean -0.3661
scored | C3 RB - K0 | non-winter | -0.0689 [-0.0971, -0.0390] 5/5 sites, rows 40,422; MAE median -0.1397, MAE mean -0.1448
scored | C3 RB - K0 | cold-snap days | -0.1307 [-0.2638, -0.0404] 5/5 sites, rows 2,400; MAE median -0.2054, MAE mean -0.2098
scored | C3 RB - K0 | cold-snap nights | -0.2284 [-0.4768, -0.1166] 5/5 sites, rows 900; MAE median -0.4077, MAE mean -0.4085
scored | C4 RB - L1 | lead band D+1 | -0.1111 [-0.1328, -0.0883] 5/5 sites, rows 66,844; MAE median -0.2133, MAE mean -0.2112
scored | C4 RB - L1 | lead band 0-24 h | -0.1504 [-0.1728, -0.1227] 5/5 sites, rows 66,818; MAE median -0.2653, MAE mean -0.2644
scored | C4 RB - L1 | lead band 24-48 h | -0.1170 [-0.1398, -0.0942] 5/5 sites, rows 66,785; MAE median -0.2268, MAE mean -0.2245
scored | C4 RB - L1 | lead band 48-144 h | -0.1302 [-0.1503, -0.1101] 5/5 sites, rows 264,935; MAE median -0.2492, MAE mean -0.2504
scored | C4 RB - L1 | lead band 144-168 h | -0.1134 [-0.1422, -0.0823] 5/5 sites, rows 65,825; MAE median -0.2186, MAE mean -0.2254
scored | C4 RB - L1 | lead band 12-36 h | -0.1162 [-0.1383, -0.0924] 5/5 sites, rows 66,838; MAE median -0.2170, MAE mean -0.2148
scored | C4 RB - L1 | lead band 0.5-168 h | -0.1288 [-0.1481, -0.1099] 5/5 sites, rows 464,363; MAE median -0.2440, MAE mean -0.2451
scored | C4 RB - L1 | leave out D5 | -0.1017 [-0.1258, -0.0835] 4/4 sites, rows 54,721; MAE median -0.1926, MAE mean -0.1929
scored | C4 RB - L1 | leave out D10 | -0.1011 [-0.1285, -0.0717] 4/4 sites, rows 52,996; MAE median -0.1936, MAE mean -0.1918
scored | C4 RB - L1 | leave out D11 | -0.1183 [-0.1424, -0.0943] 4/4 sites, rows 52,879; MAE median -0.2294, MAE mean -0.2265
scored | C4 RB - L1 | leave out D14 | -0.1215 [-0.1450, -0.0988] 4/4 sites, rows 53,174; MAE median -0.2359, MAE mean -0.2329
scored | C4 RB - L1 | leave out D16 | -0.1131 [-0.1326, -0.0875] 4/4 sites, rows 53,606; MAE median -0.2153, MAE mean -0.2125
scored | C4 RB - L1 | all D+1 | -0.1111 [-0.1328, -0.0883] 5/5 sites, rows 66,844; MAE median -0.2133, MAE mean -0.2112
    absolute {'RB': 2.4244125022050143, 'L1': 2.5354834150449856}
scored | C4 RB - L1 | all leads | -0.1288 [-0.1481, -0.1099] 5/5 sites, rows 464,363; MAE median -0.2440, MAE mean -0.2451
scored | C4 RB - L1 | non-holiday rows | -0.1159 [-0.1399, -0.0926] 5/5 sites, rows 64,218; MAE median -0.2215, MAE mean -0.2192
scored | C4 RB - L1 | holiday-like days | +0.0067 [-0.0092, +0.0174] 3/5 sites, rows 2,626; MAE median -0.0112, MAE mean -0.0156
scored | C4 RB - L1 | Christmas window | -0.0283 [-0.0509, +0.0579] 4/4 sites, rows 3,453; MAE median -0.0876, MAE mean -0.0874
scored | C4 RB - L1 | Easter | -0.0100 [-0.0100, -0.0100] 3/5 sites, rows 720; MAE median -0.0010, MAE mean -0.0205
scored | C4 RB - L1 | weekday Mon | -0.0835 [-0.1374, -0.0314] 4/5 sites, rows 8,539; MAE median -0.1603, MAE mean -0.1564
scored | C4 RB - L1 | weekday Tue | -0.1342 [-0.1941, -0.0822] 5/5 sites, rows 9,391; MAE median -0.2745, MAE mean -0.2723
scored | C4 RB - L1 | weekday Wed | -0.1496 [-0.2290, -0.0842] 5/5 sites, rows 9,085; MAE median -0.2812, MAE mean -0.2849
scored | C4 RB - L1 | weekday Thu | -0.1649 [-0.2209, -0.1100] 5/5 sites, rows 9,285; MAE median -0.2919, MAE mean -0.2856
scored | C4 RB - L1 | weekday Fri | -0.0822 [-0.1461, -0.0243] 4/5 sites, rows 9,471; MAE median -0.1378, MAE mean -0.1325
scored | C4 RB - L1 | weekday Sat | -0.0774 [-0.1351, -0.0164] 5/5 sites, rows 9,149; MAE median -0.1521, MAE mean -0.1525
scored | C4 RB - L1 | weekday Sun | -0.1175 [-0.2081, -0.0468] 5/5 sites, rows 9,298; MAE median -0.2494, MAE mean -0.2467
scored | C4 RB - L1 | winter | -0.0963 [-0.1216, -0.0612] 5/5 sites, rows 26,422; MAE median -0.1795, MAE mean -0.1776
scored | C4 RB - L1 | winter evening 16-20 | -0.0189 [-0.0875, +0.0417] 3/5 sites, rows 4,416; MAE median -0.0553, MAE mean -0.0523
scored | C4 RB - L1 | non-winter | -0.1208 [-0.1494, -0.0937] 5/5 sites, rows 40,422; MAE median -0.2354, MAE mean -0.2331
scored | C4 RB - L1 | cold-snap days | -0.0711 [-0.1405, -0.0354] 3/5 sites, rows 2,400; MAE median -0.1610, MAE mean -0.1654
scored | C4 RB - L1 | cold-snap nights | -0.0092 [-0.1396, +0.1720] 2/5 sites, rows 900; MAE median -0.0794, MAE mean -0.0829
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | lead band D+1 | -0.0108 [-0.0186, -0.0010] 4/5 sites, rows 66,844; MAE median -0.0172, MAE mean -0.0183
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | lead band 0-24 h | +0.0028 [-0.0031, +0.0093] 1/5 sites, rows 66,818; MAE median +0.0070, MAE mean +0.0074
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | lead band 24-48 h | -0.0045 [-0.0109, +0.0033] 3/5 sites, rows 66,785; MAE median -0.0057, MAE mean -0.0064
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | lead band 48-144 h | +0.0100 [+0.0053, +0.0145] 0/5 sites, rows 264,935; MAE median +0.0215, MAE mean +0.0210
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | lead band 144-168 h | +0.0088 [+0.0029, +0.0153] 2/5 sites, rows 65,825; MAE median +0.0190, MAE mean +0.0206
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | lead band 12-36 h | -0.0084 [-0.0162, +0.0012] 3/5 sites, rows 66,838; MAE median -0.0139, MAE mean -0.0148
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | lead band 0.5-168 h | +0.0067 [+0.0030, +0.0107] 0/5 sites, rows 464,363; MAE median +0.0151, MAE mean +0.0150
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | leave out D5 | -0.0138 [-0.0214, -0.0052] 4/4 sites, rows 54,721; MAE median -0.0234, MAE mean -0.0234
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | leave out D10 | -0.0133 [-0.0224, -0.0020] 3/4 sites, rows 52,996; MAE median -0.0219, MAE mean -0.0229
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | leave out D11 | -0.0130 [-0.0205, -0.0035] 3/4 sites, rows 52,879; MAE median -0.0200, MAE mean -0.0216
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | leave out D14 | -0.0057 [-0.0153, +0.0036] 3/4 sites, rows 53,174; MAE median -0.0091, MAE mean -0.0103
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | leave out D16 | -0.0079 [-0.0155, +0.0021] 3/4 sites, rows 53,606; MAE median -0.0117, MAE mean -0.0132
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | all D+1 | -0.0108 [-0.0186, -0.0010] 4/5 sites, rows 66,844; MAE median -0.0172, MAE mean -0.0183
    absolute {'RB-day-types': 2.4136471076621495, 'RB': 2.4244125022050143}
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | all leads | +0.0067 [+0.0030, +0.0107] 0/5 sites, rows 464,363; MAE median +0.0151, MAE mean +0.0150
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | non-holiday rows | -0.0112 [-0.0191, -0.0014] 4/5 sites, rows 64,218; MAE median -0.0179, MAE mean -0.0192
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | holiday-like days | +0.0007 [-0.0055, +0.0109] 3/5 sites, rows 2,626; MAE median -0.0011, MAE mean +0.0033
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | Christmas window | +0.0054 [+0.0042, +0.0102] 1/4 sites, rows 3,453; MAE median +0.0072, MAE mean +0.0097
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | Easter | +0.0065 [+0.0065, +0.0065] 2/5 sites, rows 720; MAE median -0.0043, MAE mean +0.0027
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | weekday Mon | -0.0263 [-0.0453, -0.0077] 3/5 sites, rows 8,539; MAE median -0.0419, MAE mean -0.0452
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | weekday Tue | -0.0066 [-0.0239, +0.0090] 3/5 sites, rows 9,391; MAE median -0.0041, MAE mean -0.0059
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | weekday Wed | +0.0002 [-0.0174, +0.0191] 3/5 sites, rows 9,085; MAE median +0.0022, MAE mean +0.0018
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | weekday Thu | -0.0088 [-0.0220, +0.0057] 5/5 sites, rows 9,285; MAE median -0.0154, MAE mean -0.0159
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | weekday Fri | -0.0255 [-0.0487, +0.0049] 3/5 sites, rows 9,471; MAE median -0.0586, MAE mean -0.0621
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | weekday Sat | +0.0026 [-0.0208, +0.0253] 3/5 sites, rows 9,149; MAE median +0.0071, MAE mean +0.0074
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | weekday Sun | -0.0147 [-0.0375, +0.0049] 4/5 sites, rows 9,298; MAE median -0.0151, MAE mean -0.0148
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | winter | -0.0108 [-0.0162, -0.0034] 2/5 sites, rows 26,422; MAE median -0.0219, MAE mean -0.0230
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | winter evening 16-20 | -0.0412 [-0.0674, -0.0162] 4/5 sites, rows 4,416; MAE median -0.0708, MAE mean -0.0704
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | non-winter | -0.0107 [-0.0231, +0.0037] 4/5 sites, rows 40,422; MAE median -0.0142, MAE mean -0.0152
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | cold-snap days | -0.0389 [-0.0863, -0.0181] 5/5 sites, rows 2,400; MAE median -0.0608, MAE mean -0.0578
scored | C5 RB-day-types - RB | cold-snap nights | +0.0057 [-0.0833, +0.0761] 3/5 sites, rows 900; MAE median +0.0115, MAE mean +0.0131
== scored: other contrasts (95%) ==
scored | C6 RB - Rh (diagnostic) | all D+1 | -0.0153 [-0.0225, -0.0086] 5/5 sites, rows 66,844; MAE median -0.0240, MAE mean -0.0240
scored | C6 RB - Rh (diagnostic) | all leads | +0.0046 [+0.0020, +0.0072] 0/5 sites, rows 464,363; MAE median +0.0111, MAE mean +0.0111
scored | C6 RB - Rh (diagnostic) | non-holiday rows | -0.0158 [-0.0232, -0.0089] 5/5 sites, rows 64,218; MAE median -0.0252, MAE mean -0.0251
scored | C6 RB - Rh (diagnostic) | winter | -0.0199 [-0.0320, -0.0074] 5/5 sites, rows 26,422; MAE median -0.0328, MAE mean -0.0332
scored | C6 RB - Rh (diagnostic) | winter evening 16-20 | -0.0401 [-0.0496, -0.0295] 5/5 sites, rows 4,416; MAE median -0.0730, MAE mean -0.0734
scored | Rh - R | all D+1 | +0.0041 [-0.0001, +0.0116] 1/5 sites, rows 66,844; MAE median +0.0057, MAE mean +0.0057
scored | Rh - R | all leads | +0.0016 [-0.0023, +0.0073] 1/5 sites, rows 464,363; MAE median +0.0024, MAE mean +0.0028
scored | Rh - R | non-holiday rows | +0.0022 [-0.0000, +0.0051] 0/5 sites, rows 64,218; MAE median +0.0036, MAE mean +0.0033
scored | Rh - R | winter | +0.0084 [-0.0010, +0.0280] 1/5 sites, rows 26,422; MAE median +0.0128, MAE mean +0.0126
scored | Rh - R | winter evening 16-20 | -0.0087 [-0.0279, +0.0006] 4/5 sites, rows 4,416; MAE median -0.0155, MAE mean -0.0165
scored | R - K0 | all D+1 | -0.0886 [-0.1189, -0.0605] 5/5 sites, rows 66,844; MAE median -0.1772, MAE mean -0.1793
scored | R - K0 | all leads | -0.0683 [-0.0922, -0.0463] 5/5 sites, rows 464,363; MAE median -0.1475, MAE mean -0.1501
scored | R - K0 | non-holiday rows | -0.0907 [-0.1211, -0.0626] 5/5 sites, rows 64,218; MAE median -0.1818, MAE mean -0.1839
scored | R - K0 | winter | -0.1356 [-0.1662, -0.0989] 5/5 sites, rows 26,422; MAE median -0.2608, MAE mean -0.2580
scored | R - K0 | winter evening 16-20 | -0.1183 [-0.1775, -0.0629] 4/5 sites, rows 4,416; MAE median -0.2784, MAE mean -0.2762
scored | RB-day-types - R | all D+1 | -0.0220 [-0.0364, -0.0065] 3/5 sites, rows 66,844; MAE median -0.0355, MAE mean -0.0366
scored | RB-day-types - R | all leads | +0.0129 [+0.0083, +0.0184] 0/5 sites, rows 464,363; MAE median +0.0287, MAE mean +0.0289
scored | RB-day-types - R | non-holiday rows | -0.0248 [-0.0369, -0.0102] 4/5 sites, rows 64,218; MAE median -0.0395, MAE mean -0.0409
scored | RB-day-types - R | winter | -0.0223 [-0.0463, +0.0094] 3/5 sites, rows 26,422; MAE median -0.0419, MAE mean -0.0436
scored | RB-day-types - R | winter evening 16-20 | -0.0900 [-0.1171, -0.0634] 5/5 sites, rows 4,416; MAE median -0.1594, MAE mean -0.1603
scored | D9 absolute D+1: K0 2.194, R 2.123, Rh 2.134, L1 2.218, RW 2.155, RB 2.127, RB-day-types 2.129
scored | absolute on rows every arm holds:
    K0: D+1 2.524, all leads 2.812
    R: D+1 2.436, all leads 2.744
    Rh: D+1 2.440, all leads 2.745
    L1: D+1 2.535, all leads 2.879
    RW: D+1 2.452, all leads 2.803
    RB: D+1 2.424, all leads 2.750
    RB-day-types: D+1 2.414, all leads 2.756
scored | tails at D+1 (coverage gap pts, pinball):
    K0: q01 +1.31 0.1912, q05 +1.75 0.6362, q95 -1.57 0.6613, q99 -1.21 0.2090
    R: q01 +1.39 0.1875, q05 +1.76 0.6138, q95 -1.01 0.6573, q99 -1.16 0.2124
    Rh: q01 +1.39 0.1885, q05 +1.81 0.6163, q95 -1.08 0.6578, q99 -1.19 0.2127
    RB: q01 +1.41 0.1883, q05 +1.81 0.6087, q95 -1.02 0.6554, q99 -1.12 0.2115
scored | median minus mean forecast at D+1, per site:
    K0: D10 +0.003, D11 -0.022, D14 +0.014, D16 -0.014, D5 -0.097
    R: D10 +0.009, D11 -0.019, D14 +0.002, D16 -0.015, D5 -0.037
    Rh: D10 -0.001, D11 -0.008, D14 +0.001, D16 -0.019, D5 -0.045
    RB: D10 -0.003, D11 -0.010, D14 -0.012, D16 -0.002, D5 -0.039
scored | COPY7 subset (rows with a reading 7 days earlier): COPY7 D+1 7.067 all leads 7.204, K0 D+1 2.521 all leads 2.809, RB D+1 2.421 all leads 2.747, R D+1 2.432 all leads 2.741