# Experiment 123 report: stage headline (winters 2021-22 to 2024-25) ## Test 1 (convention, hand check, B0 reproduction), test 0, and test 3 Convention: `time` is the END of the half-hour; a half-hour starting at s is stamped s + 30 min, as in experiments 114 and 121 (their code subtracts 30 min to get the start). Window rows (start): 00:30, 01:00, 01:30, 02:00, 02:30; baseline (start): 22:00 to 23:30. shape: (9, 4) ┌────────────┬──────────┬──────┬─────────────────────────┐ │ evening ┆ role ┆ slot ┆ end_utc │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ date ┆ str ┆ i64 ┆ datetime[μs, UTC] │ ╞════════════╪══════════╪══════╪═════════════════════════╡ │ 2022-01-12 ┆ baseline ┆ 0 ┆ 2022-01-12 22:30:00 UTC │ │ 2022-01-12 ┆ baseline ┆ 1 ┆ 2022-01-12 23:00:00 UTC │ │ 2022-01-12 ┆ baseline ┆ 2 ┆ 2022-01-12 23:30:00 UTC │ │ 2022-01-12 ┆ baseline ┆ 3 ┆ 2022-01-13 00:00:00 UTC │ │ 2022-01-12 ┆ window ┆ 0 ┆ 2022-01-13 01:00:00 UTC │ │ 2022-01-12 ┆ window ┆ 1 ┆ 2022-01-13 01:30:00 UTC │ │ 2022-01-12 ┆ window ┆ 2 ┆ 2022-01-13 02:00:00 UTC │ │ 2022-01-12 ┆ window ┆ 3 ┆ 2022-01-13 02:30:00 UTC │ │ 2022-01-12 ┆ window ┆ 4 ┆ 2022-01-13 03:00:00 UTC │ └────────────┴──────────┴──────┴─────────────────────────┘ Readings read: latest 2026-06-30 23:30:00+00:00 (before 2026-07-01). D10 2023-10-30: table d 0.156800, by hand 0.156800, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2023-11-06: table d 0.322850, by hand 0.322850, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2023-11-13: table d 0.418400, by hand 0.418400, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2023-11-20: table d 0.357650, by hand 0.357650, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2023-11-27: table d 0.497700, by hand 0.497700, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2023-12-04: table d 0.447050, by hand 0.447050, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2023-12-11: table d 0.524100, by hand 0.524100, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2023-12-18: table d 0.583650, by hand 0.583650, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2023-12-25: table d 0.393250, by hand 0.393250, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2024-01-01: table d 0.441100, by hand 0.441100, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2024-01-08: table d 0.611000, by hand 0.611000, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2024-01-15: table d 0.549650, by hand 0.549650, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2024-01-22: table d 0.616200, by hand 0.616200, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2024-01-29: table d 0.475550, by hand 0.475550, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2024-02-05: table d 0.229600, by hand 0.229600, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2024-02-12: table d 0.483750, by hand 0.483750, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2024-02-19: table d 0.446200, by hand 0.446200, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2024-02-26: table d 0.328950, by hand 0.328950, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2024-03-04: table d 0.496750, by hand 0.496750, gap 0.0e+00 D10 2024-03-11: table d 0.429350, by hand 0.429350, gap 0.0e+00 B0 reproduction (experiment 114 stored predictions, tuning year): D5: recomputed 2.5656, stored 2.5656, gap 1.1e-05 D10: recomputed 7.0380, stored 7.0380, gap 4.9e-07 D11: recomputed 3.3068, stored 3.3068, gap 3.0e-05 D14: recomputed 2.1622, stored 2.1622, gap 4.1e-05 D16: recomputed 2.3242, stored 2.3242, gap 4.9e-05 Test 0 and test 3, on the design winters 2023-24 and 2024-25 only: D5: winters [2023, 2024], lowest per-winter present share 1.000, rank 5/5, smallest singular value 4.122, VIF of c 1.02, kept D9: winters [2023, 2024], lowest per-winter present share 1.000, rank 5/5, smallest singular value 3.525, VIF of c 1.02, kept D10: winters [2023, 2024], lowest per-winter present share 1.000, rank 5/5, smallest singular value 4.068, VIF of c 1.02, kept D11: winters [2023, 2024], lowest per-winter present share 1.000, rank 5/5, smallest singular value 4.068, VIF of c 1.02, kept D14: winters [2023, 2024], lowest per-winter present share 1.000, rank 5/5, smallest singular value 4.122, VIF of c 1.02, kept D16: winters [2023, 2024], lowest per-winter present share 1.000, rank 5/5, smallest singular value 4.188, VIF of c 1.02, kept D2: winters [2023, 2024], lowest per-winter present share 1.000, rank 5/5, smallest singular value 3.525, VIF of c 1.02, kept D3: winters [2023, 2024], lowest per-winter present share 1.000, rank 5/5, smallest singular value 4.122, VIF of c 1.02, kept D4: winters [2023, 2024], lowest per-winter present share 1.000, rank 5/5, smallest singular value 3.525, VIF of c 1.02, kept D8: winters [2023, 2024], lowest per-winter present share 1.000, rank 5/5, smallest singular value 4.122, VIF of c 1.02, kept D12: winters [2023, 2024], lowest per-winter present share 0.993, rank 5/5, smallest singular value 4.119, VIF of c 1.02, kept D19: winters [2023, 2024], lowest per-winter present share 1.000, rank 5/5, smallest singular value 3.525, VIF of c 1.02, kept D21: winters [2023, 2024], lowest per-winter present share 1.000, rank 5/5, smallest singular value 3.525, VIF of c 1.02, kept D22: winters [2023, 2024], lowest per-winter present share 0.993, rank 5/5, smallest singular value 4.119, VIF of c 1.02, kept ## Fits, cross-checks, timing, and sensitivities == unpooled == shape: (14, 17) ┌──────┬─────────────────────────────────┬─────────────────────┬───────────┬──────────┬───────┬───────────┬────────────┬───────┬──────────┬───────────┬───────┬──────────┬───────────┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────────────────┐ │ site ┆ winter_set ┆ winters ┆ n_winters ┆ n_nights ┆ slope ┆ slope_low ┆ slope_high ┆ flat ┆ flat_low ┆ flat_high ┆ step ┆ step_low ┆ step_high ┆ step_sd ┆ step_mw ┆ detectable_interval │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ str ┆ str ┆ i64 ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ bool │ ╞══════╪═════════════════════════════════╪═════════════════════╪═══════════╪══════════╪═══════╪═══════════╪════════════╪═══════╪══════════╪═══════════╪═══════╪══════════╪═══════════╪═════════╪═════════╪═════════════════════╡ │ D5 ┆ headline: 2021, 2022, 2023, 20… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024 ┆ 4 ┆ 549 ┆ 0.25 ┆ 0.16 ┆ 0.32 ┆ 7.72 ┆ 6.89 ┆ 8.73 ┆ 10.83 ┆ 10.42 ┆ 11.18 ┆ 0.23 ┆ 0.62 ┆ true │ │ D9 ┆ headline: 2021, 2022, 2023, 20… ┆ 2023,2024 ┆ 2 ┆ 282 ┆ 0.38 ┆ 0.18 ┆ 0.52 ┆ 4.83 ┆ 3.33 ┆ 6.89 ┆ 9.54 ┆ 8.55 ┆ 10.39 ┆ 0.56 ┆ 0.68 ┆ true │ │ D10 ┆ headline: 2021, 2022, 2023, 20… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024 ┆ 4 ┆ 549 ┆ 0.37 ┆ 0.26 ┆ 0.45 ┆ 10.79 ┆ 9.82 ┆ 12.05 ┆ 15.38 ┆ 14.91 ┆ 15.79 ┆ 0.28 ┆ 0.83 ┆ true │ │ D11 ┆ headline: 2021, 2022, 2023, 20… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024 ┆ 4 ┆ 549 ┆ 0.13 ┆ 0.05 ┆ 0.19 ┆ 5.45 ┆ 4.68 ┆ 6.38 ┆ 7.04 ┆ 6.66 ┆ 7.38 ┆ 0.22 ┆ 0.76 ┆ true │ │ D14 ┆ headline: 2021, 2022, 2023, 20… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024 ┆ 4 ┆ 549 ┆ 0.09 ┆ 0.01 ┆ 0.15 ┆ 1.85 ┆ 1.18 ┆ 2.77 ┆ 2.97 ┆ 2.52 ┆ 3.39 ┆ 0.27 ┆ 0.35 ┆ true │ │ D16 ┆ headline: 2021, 2022, 2023, 20… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024 ┆ 4 ┆ 549 ┆ 0.26 ┆ 0.13 ┆ 0.37 ┆ 10.17 ┆ 8.89 ┆ 11.80 ┆ 13.41 ┆ 12.89 ┆ 13.84 ┆ 0.29 ┆ 1.22 ┆ true │ │ D2 ┆ headline: 2021, 2022, 2023, 20… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024 ┆ 4 ┆ 549 ┆ 0.53 ┆ 0.36 ┆ 0.62 ┆ 8.11 ┆ 7.06 ┆ 9.88 ┆ 14.69 ┆ 14.10 ┆ 15.12 ┆ 0.31 ┆ 2.67 ┆ true │ │ D3 ┆ headline: 2021, 2022, 2023, 20… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024 ┆ 4 ┆ 549 ┆ 0.16 ┆ 0.12 ┆ 0.20 ┆ 4.56 ┆ 4.12 ┆ 5.08 ┆ 6.62 ┆ 6.41 ┆ 6.79 ┆ 0.11 ┆ 0.85 ┆ true │ │ D4 ┆ headline: 2021, 2022, 2023, 20… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024 ┆ 4 ┆ 549 ┆ 0.41 ┆ 0.28 ┆ 0.49 ┆ 8.28 ┆ 6.98 ┆ 9.94 ┆ 13.35 ┆ 12.21 ┆ 14.32 ┆ 0.63 ┆ 1.62 ┆ true │ │ D8 ┆ headline: 2021, 2022, 2023, 20… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024 ┆ 4 ┆ 549 ┆ 0.19 ┆ 0.09 ┆ 0.29 ┆ -1.95 ┆ -3.34 ┆ -0.48 ┆ 0.47 ┆ -0.73 ┆ 1.73 ┆ 0.78 ┆ 0.05 ┆ false │ │ D12 ┆ headline: 2021, 2022, 2023, 20… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024 ┆ 4 ┆ 548 ┆ 0.46 ┆ 0.16 ┆ 0.67 ┆ 9.17 ┆ 6.26 ┆ 13.09 ┆ 14.89 ┆ 13.20 ┆ 16.44 ┆ 0.97 ┆ 0.70 ┆ true │ │ D19 ┆ headline: 2021, 2022, 2023, 20… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024 ┆ 4 ┆ 549 ┆ 1.12 ┆ 0.84 ┆ 1.29 ┆ 19.43 ┆ 17.27 ┆ 22.63 ┆ 33.47 ┆ 32.12 ┆ 34.51 ┆ 0.71 ┆ 1.82 ┆ true │ │ D21 ┆ headline: 2021, 2022, 2023, 20… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024 ┆ 4 ┆ 548 ┆ 0.19 ┆ 0.10 ┆ 0.25 ┆ 7.21 ┆ 6.50 ┆ 8.25 ┆ 9.64 ┆ 9.12 ┆ 10.10 ┆ 0.31 ┆ 0.54 ┆ true │ │ D22 ┆ headline: 2021, 2022, 2023, 20… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024 ┆ 4 ┆ 548 ┆ 0.16 ┆ 0.04 ┆ 0.26 ┆ 10.66 ┆ 9.48 ┆ 12.08 ┆ 12.68 ┆ 12.04 ┆ 13.34 ┆ 0.39 ┆ 0.41 ┆ true │ └──────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────┴───────────┴──────────┴───────┴───────────┴────────────┴───────┴──────────┴───────────┴───────┴──────────┴───────────┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────────────────┘ == raw == shape: (14, 9) ┌──────┬─────────────┬─────────────┬──────────────┬─────────────────────┬────────────────────┬──────────┬───────────────┬─────────────────┐ │ site ┆ cold_nights ┆ mean_cold_c ┆ raw_contrast ┆ d_line_at_mean_cold ┆ gap_raw_minus_line ┆ d_summer ┆ bounded_slope ┆ unbounded_slope │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 │ ╞══════╪═════════════╪═════════════╪══════════════╪═════════════════════╪════════════════════╪══════════╪═══════════════╪═════════════════╡ │ D5 ┆ 346.00 ┆ 10.91 ┆ 10.54 ┆ 10.43 ┆ 0.11 ┆ -5.16 ┆ 0.25 ┆ 0.25 │ │ D9 ┆ 174.00 ┆ 10.37 ┆ 8.66 ┆ 8.74 ┆ -0.08 ┆ -13.42 ┆ 0.38 ┆ 0.38 │ │ D10 ┆ 357.00 ┆ 11.06 ┆ 14.92 ┆ 14.85 ┆ 0.06 ┆ -5.53 ┆ 0.37 ┆ 0.37 │ │ D11 ┆ 357.00 ┆ 11.06 ┆ 6.86 ┆ 6.86 ┆ 0.01 ┆ -3.04 ┆ 0.13 ┆ 0.13 │ │ D14 ┆ 346.00 ┆ 10.91 ┆ 2.83 ┆ 2.83 ┆ -0.00 ┆ -4.19 ┆ 0.09 ┆ 0.09 │ │ D16 ┆ 348.00 ┆ 11.03 ┆ 13.17 ┆ 13.03 ┆ 0.14 ┆ -4.41 ┆ 0.26 ┆ 0.26 │ │ D2 ┆ 355.00 ┆ 10.35 ┆ 13.61 ┆ 13.55 ┆ 0.06 ┆ -9.53 ┆ 0.53 ┆ 0.53 │ │ D3 ┆ 346.00 ┆ 10.91 ┆ 6.42 ┆ 6.36 ┆ 0.06 ┆ -7.34 ┆ 0.16 ┆ 0.16 │ │ D4 ┆ 355.00 ┆ 10.35 ┆ 12.50 ┆ 12.48 ┆ 0.02 ┆ -11.45 ┆ 0.41 ┆ 0.41 │ │ D8 ┆ 346.00 ┆ 10.91 ┆ 0.05 ┆ 0.16 ┆ -0.11 ┆ -0.70 ┆ 0.19 ┆ 0.19 │ │ D12 ┆ 345.00 ┆ 10.91 ┆ 14.54 ┆ 14.16 ┆ 0.37 ┆ -2.34 ┆ 0.46 ┆ 0.46 │ │ D19 ┆ 355.00 ┆ 10.35 ┆ 31.25 ┆ 31.05 ┆ 0.20 ┆ -10.47 ┆ 1.12 ┆ 1.12 │ │ D21 ┆ 355.00 ┆ 10.35 ┆ 9.27 ┆ 9.22 ┆ 0.05 ┆ -5.91 ┆ 0.19 ┆ 0.19 │ │ D22 ┆ 345.00 ┆ 10.91 ┆ 12.36 ┆ 12.43 ┆ -0.06 ┆ -5.99 ┆ 0.16 ┆ 0.16 │ └──────┴─────────────┴─────────────┴──────────────┴─────────────────────┴────────────────────┴──────────┴───────────────┴─────────────────┘ == cold_snap == shape: (22, 6) ┌──────┬────────┬────────┬──────────────────┬──────────────────┬──────┐ │ site ┆ winter ┆ nights ┆ contrast_nov_mar ┆ contrast_nov_feb ┆ note │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ str │ ╞══════╪════════╪════════╪══════════════════╪══════════════════╪══════╡ │ D5 ┆ 2021 ┆ 32.00 ┆ 12.03 ┆ 12.05 ┆ ok │ │ D5 ┆ 2022 ┆ 37.00 ┆ 11.64 ┆ 12.00 ┆ ok │ │ D5 ┆ 2023 ┆ 38.00 ┆ 8.88 ┆ 8.84 ┆ ok │ │ D5 ┆ 2024 ┆ 34.00 ┆ 11.14 ┆ 11.15 ┆ ok │ │ D9 ┆ 2023 ┆ 38.00 ┆ 9.21 ┆ 9.48 ┆ ok │ │ D9 ┆ 2024 ┆ 34.00 ┆ 9.12 ┆ 9.30 ┆ ok │ │ D10 ┆ 2021 ┆ 32.00 ┆ 17.39 ┆ 17.43 ┆ ok │ │ D10 ┆ 2022 ┆ 37.00 ┆ 16.69 ┆ 16.54 ┆ ok │ │ D10 ┆ 2023 ┆ 38.00 ┆ 15.00 ┆ 15.07 ┆ ok │ │ D10 ┆ 2024 ┆ 34.00 ┆ 14.38 ┆ 14.34 ┆ ok │ │ D11 ┆ 2021 ┆ 32.00 ┆ 6.90 ┆ 6.97 ┆ ok │ │ D11 ┆ 2022 ┆ 37.00 ┆ 7.04 ┆ 7.01 ┆ ok │ │ D11 ┆ 2023 ┆ 38.00 ┆ 7.02 ┆ 6.99 ┆ ok │ │ D11 ┆ 2024 ┆ 34.00 ┆ 7.57 ┆ 7.48 ┆ ok │ │ D14 ┆ 2021 ┆ 32.00 ┆ 3.97 ┆ 4.02 ┆ ok │ │ D14 ┆ 2022 ┆ 37.00 ┆ 3.42 ┆ 3.35 ┆ ok │ │ D14 ┆ 2023 ┆ 38.00 ┆ 1.36 ┆ 1.36 ┆ ok │ │ D14 ┆ 2024 ┆ 34.00 ┆ 3.13 ┆ 3.06 ┆ ok │ │ D16 ┆ 2021 ┆ 32.00 ┆ 14.88 ┆ 14.86 ┆ ok │ │ D16 ┆ 2022 ┆ 37.00 ┆ 12.21 ┆ 12.21 ┆ ok │ │ D16 ┆ 2023 ┆ 38.00 ┆ 13.05 ┆ 13.05 ┆ ok │ │ D16 ┆ 2024 ┆ 34.00 ┆ 14.56 ┆ 14.52 ┆ ok │ └──────┴────────┴────────┴──────────────────┴──────────────────┴──────┘ == cross_checks == shape: (15, 9) ┌──────┬─────────┬───────────┬───────┬──────────┬───────────┬───────┬─────────────────────┬────────────┐ │ site ┆ arm ┆ winters ┆ step ┆ step_low ┆ step_high ┆ slope ┆ d_step_same_winters ┆ ratio_to_d │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ str ┆ str ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 │ ╞══════╪═════════╪═══════════╪═══════╪══════════╪═══════════╪═══════╪═════════════════════╪════════════╡ │ D5 ┆ b0 ┆ 2023,2024 ┆ 7.87 ┆ 7.51 ┆ 8.34 ┆ 0.22 ┆ 10.07 ┆ 0.78 │ │ D5 ┆ b0_k ┆ 2023,2024 ┆ 9.72 ┆ 9.05 ┆ 10.22 ┆ 0.30 ┆ 10.07 ┆ 0.96 │ │ D5 ┆ t_all_k ┆ 2023,2024 ┆ 5.27 ┆ 4.76 ┆ 5.76 ┆ -0.02 ┆ 10.07 ┆ 0.52 │ │ D10 ┆ b0 ┆ 2023,2024 ┆ 9.12 ┆ 8.68 ┆ 9.60 ┆ 0.23 ┆ 14.45 ┆ 0.63 │ │ D10 ┆ b0_k ┆ 2023,2024 ┆ 10.73 ┆ 10.10 ┆ 11.26 ┆ 0.31 ┆ 14.45 ┆ 0.74 │ │ D10 ┆ t_all_k ┆ 2023,2024 ┆ 6.03 ┆ 5.47 ┆ 6.59 ┆ -0.00 ┆ 14.45 ┆ 0.42 │ │ D11 ┆ b0 ┆ 2023,2024 ┆ 4.94 ┆ 4.45 ┆ 5.49 ┆ 0.09 ┆ 7.29 ┆ 0.68 │ │ D11 ┆ b0_k ┆ 2023,2024 ┆ 5.87 ┆ 5.27 ┆ 6.43 ┆ 0.11 ┆ 7.29 ┆ 0.81 │ │ D11 ┆ t_all_k ┆ 2023,2024 ┆ 3.54 ┆ 2.93 ┆ 4.16 ┆ -0.05 ┆ 7.29 ┆ 0.49 │ │ D14 ┆ b0 ┆ 2023,2024 ┆ 4.55 ┆ 4.09 ┆ 4.96 ┆ 0.23 ┆ 2.22 ┆ 2.05 │ │ D14 ┆ b0_k ┆ 2023,2024 ┆ 6.27 ┆ 5.84 ┆ 6.64 ┆ 0.21 ┆ 2.22 ┆ 2.83 │ │ D14 ┆ t_all_k ┆ 2023,2024 ┆ 3.04 ┆ 2.72 ┆ 3.43 ┆ -0.02 ┆ 2.22 ┆ 1.37 │ │ D16 ┆ b0 ┆ 2023,2024 ┆ 7.20 ┆ 6.70 ┆ 7.71 ┆ 0.18 ┆ 13.61 ┆ 0.53 │ │ D16 ┆ b0_k ┆ 2023,2024 ┆ 7.99 ┆ 7.29 ┆ 8.66 ┆ 0.21 ┆ 13.61 ┆ 0.59 │ │ D16 ┆ t_all_k ┆ 2023,2024 ┆ 4.26 ┆ 3.56 ┆ 4.97 ┆ -0.05 ┆ 13.61 ┆ 0.31 │ └──────┴─────────┴───────────┴───────┴──────────┴───────────┴───────┴─────────────────────┴────────────┘ == leave_one_out == shape: (6, 4) ┌──────────┬───────┬─────┬────────────────┐ │ left_out ┆ mean ┆ k ┆ inside_full_hk │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ f64 ┆ i64 ┆ bool │ ╞══════════╪═══════╪═════╪════════════════╡ │ D5 ┆ 9.67 ┆ 5 ┆ true │ │ D9 ┆ 9.93 ┆ 5 ┆ true │ │ D10 ┆ 8.76 ┆ 5 ┆ true │ │ D11 ┆ 10.43 ┆ 5 ┆ true │ │ D14 ┆ 11.24 ┆ 5 ┆ true │ │ D16 ┆ 9.15 ┆ 5 ┆ true │ └──────────┴───────┴─────┴────────────────┘ == timing == shape: (14, 6) ┌──────┬─────────────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐ │ site ┆ cold_bst_nights ┆ delta ┆ low ┆ high ┆ label │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ str │ ╞══════╪═════════════════╪═══════╪═══════╪═══════╪═══════╡ │ D5 ┆ 75 ┆ -0.38 ┆ -0.41 ┆ -0.34 ┆ UTC │ │ D9 ┆ 18 ┆ -0.55 ┆ -0.56 ┆ -0.47 ┆ UTC │ │ D10 ┆ 88 ┆ -0.49 ┆ -0.53 ┆ -0.44 ┆ UTC │ │ D11 ┆ 90 ┆ -0.52 ┆ -0.57 ┆ -0.45 ┆ UTC │ │ D14 ┆ 75 ┆ -0.46 ┆ -0.55 ┆ -0.36 ┆ UTC │ │ D16 ┆ 68 ┆ -0.30 ┆ -0.33 ┆ -0.25 ┆ UTC │ │ D2 ┆ 83 ┆ -1.40 ┆ -1.47 ┆ -1.30 ┆ UTC │ │ D3 ┆ 75 ┆ -0.86 ┆ -0.91 ┆ -0.80 ┆ UTC │ │ D4 ┆ 83 ┆ -0.66 ┆ -0.74 ┆ -0.56 ┆ UTC │ │ D8 ┆ 75 ┆ -0.38 ┆ -0.48 ┆ -0.25 ┆ UTC │ │ D12 ┆ 75 ┆ -0.28 ┆ -0.34 ┆ -0.22 ┆ UTC │ │ D19 ┆ 83 ┆ -0.70 ┆ -0.75 ┆ -0.62 ┆ UTC │ │ D21 ┆ 83 ┆ -0.31 ┆ -0.39 ┆ -0.23 ┆ UTC │ │ D22 ┆ 75 ┆ -0.16 ┆ -0.20 ┆ -0.11 ┆ UTC │ └──────┴─────────────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘ == bst_jump == shape: (14, 6) ┌──────┬───────────────────────┬───────────────────────┬──────────────────┬────────────┬────────────┐ │ site ┆ gmt_jump_start_minute ┆ bst_jump_start_minute ┆ shift_half_hours ┆ bst_nights ┆ gmt_nights │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ i64 ┆ i64 ┆ i64 ┆ i64 ┆ i64 │ ╞══════╪═══════════════════════╪═══════════════════════╪══════════════════╪════════════╪════════════╡ │ D5 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 75 ┆ 546 │ │ D9 ┆ 30 ┆ 300 ┆ 9 ┆ 18 ┆ 174 │ │ D10 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 88 ┆ 568 │ │ D11 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 90 ┆ 571 │ │ D14 ┆ 30 ┆ 150 ┆ 4 ┆ 75 ┆ 526 │ │ D16 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 68 ┆ 411 │ │ D2 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 83 ┆ 559 │ │ D3 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 75 ┆ 524 │ │ D4 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 83 ┆ 559 │ │ D8 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 75 ┆ 551 │ │ D12 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 75 ┆ 553 │ │ D19 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 83 ┆ 559 │ │ D21 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 83 ┆ 559 │ │ D22 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 75 ┆ 553 │ └──────┴───────────────────────┴───────────────────────┴──────────────────┴────────────┴────────────┘ == hand_filtered == shape: (6, 6) ┌──────┬──────────────────┬───────┬──────────┬───────────┬───────┐ │ site ┆ readings_dropped ┆ step ┆ step_low ┆ step_high ┆ slope │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 │ ╞══════╪══════════════════╪═══════╪══════════╪═══════════╪═══════╡ │ D5 ┆ 5200 ┆ 10.99 ┆ 10.62 ┆ 11.29 ┆ 0.28 │ │ D9 ┆ 443 ┆ 9.84 ┆ 8.76 ┆ 10.67 ┆ 0.38 │ │ D10 ┆ 1703 ┆ 15.35 ┆ 14.84 ┆ 15.77 ┆ 0.37 │ │ D11 ┆ 193 ┆ 7.03 ┆ 6.66 ┆ 7.38 ┆ 0.13 │ │ D14 ┆ 857 ┆ 2.95 ┆ 2.49 ┆ 3.41 ┆ 0.09 │ │ D16 ┆ 3676 ┆ 13.50 ┆ 12.95 ┆ 13.92 ┆ 0.29 │ └──────┴──────────────────┴───────┴──────────┴───────────┴───────┘ == raw_cold_step == shape: (3, 5) ┌──────┬─────────────┬─────────┬─────────────┬───────────────────────┐ │ site ┆ cold_nights ┆ step_mw ┆ step_points ┆ effective_capacity_mw │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 │ ╞══════╪═════════════╪═════════╪═════════════╪═══════════════════════╡ │ D5 ┆ 36 ┆ 0.27 ┆ 4.78 ┆ 5.72 │ │ D10 ┆ 39 ┆ 0.44 ┆ 8.16 ┆ 5.40 │ │ D16 ┆ 39 ┆ 0.87 ┆ 9.53 ┆ 9.11 │ └──────┴─────────────┴─────────┴─────────────┴───────────────────────┘ == pooled == shape: (5, 13) ┌─────────────────────────────────┬─────┬───────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬───────────┬──────┬─────────┬──────────┬─────────┬─────────┬──────────────────────┐ │ set ┆ k ┆ mean ┆ low_hk ┆ high_hk ┆ low_boot ┆ high_boot ┆ tau ┆ tau_low ┆ tau_high ┆ minimum ┆ maximum ┆ label │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ str │ ╞═════════════════════════════════╪═════╪═══════╪════════╪═════════╪══════════╪═══════════╪══════╪═════════╪══════════╪═════════╪═════════╪══════════════════════╡ │ six decision series (headline) ┆ 6 ┆ 9.86 ┆ 6.19 ┆ 13.54 ┆ 7.03 ┆ 12.58 ┆ 4.07 ┆ 2.70 ┆ 7.15 ┆ 2.97 ┆ 15.38 ┆ ok │ │ D5, D10, D16 (selected for sho… ┆ 3 ┆ 13.21 ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ 10.83 ┆ 15.38 ┆ plain mean and range │ │ D9, D11, D14 (not selected) ┆ 3 ┆ 6.52 ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ 2.97 ┆ 9.54 ┆ plain mean and range │ │ E7-X (eight further Primaries) ┆ 8 ┆ 13.21 ┆ 6.85 ┆ 19.58 ┆ 8.54 ┆ 18.77 ┆ 8.87 ┆ 6.17 ┆ 14.30 ┆ 0.47 ┆ 33.47 ┆ ok │ │ all 14 series ┆ 14 ┆ 11.76 ┆ 8.13 ┆ 15.40 ┆ 8.72 ┆ 15.13 ┆ 7.39 ┆ 5.57 ┆ 10.46 ┆ 0.47 ┆ 33.47 ┆ ok │ └─────────────────────────────────┴─────┴───────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴───────────┴──────┴─────────┴──────────┴─────────┴─────────┴──────────────────────┘ == per winter (single-winter fits, step in points) == shape: (54, 6) ┌──────┬────────────────────┬───────┬──────────┬───────────┬──────────┐ │ site ┆ winter_set ┆ step ┆ step_low ┆ step_high ┆ n_nights │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ str ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ i64 │ ╞══════╪════════════════════╪═══════╪══════════╪═══════════╪══════════╡ │ D10 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 17.04 ┆ 16.04 ┆ 17.85 ┆ 133 │ │ D10 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 15.61 ┆ 14.72 ┆ 16.57 ┆ 134 │ │ D10 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 14.66 ┆ 14.10 ┆ 15.06 ┆ 140 │ │ D10 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 14.22 ┆ 13.55 ┆ 14.95 ┆ 142 │ │ D11 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 6.57 ┆ 5.81 ┆ 7.07 ┆ 133 │ │ D11 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 6.86 ┆ 6.30 ┆ 7.54 ┆ 134 │ │ D11 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 6.77 ┆ 5.95 ┆ 7.30 ┆ 140 │ │ D11 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 7.75 ┆ 7.20 ┆ 8.30 ┆ 142 │ │ D12 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 19.58 ┆ 16.49 ┆ 22.68 ┆ 133 │ │ D12 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 12.01 ┆ 10.43 ┆ 13.60 ┆ 134 │ │ D12 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 10.37 ┆ 8.16 ┆ 12.06 ┆ 139 │ │ D12 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 18.23 ┆ 14.23 ┆ 23.47 ┆ 142 │ │ D14 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 4.20 ┆ 3.30 ┆ 4.91 ┆ 133 │ │ D14 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 3.19 ┆ 2.22 ┆ 3.95 ┆ 134 │ │ D14 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 1.30 ┆ 0.74 ┆ 1.84 ┆ 140 │ │ D14 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 3.04 ┆ 2.45 ┆ 3.62 ┆ 142 │ │ D16 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 15.01 ┆ 13.79 ┆ 15.98 ┆ 133 │ │ D16 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 11.59 ┆ 10.87 ┆ 12.30 ┆ 134 │ │ D16 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 12.79 ┆ 12.11 ┆ 13.43 ┆ 140 │ │ D16 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 14.35 ┆ 13.29 ┆ 15.24 ┆ 142 │ │ D19 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 40.17 ┆ 38.24 ┆ 41.70 ┆ 133 │ │ D19 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 33.20 ┆ 31.80 ┆ 34.53 ┆ 134 │ │ D19 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 30.90 ┆ 29.43 ┆ 32.64 ┆ 140 │ │ D19 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 30.22 ┆ 28.74 ┆ 31.67 ┆ 142 │ │ D2 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 16.49 ┆ 15.44 ┆ 17.16 ┆ 133 │ │ D2 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 14.83 ┆ 14.02 ┆ 15.66 ┆ 134 │ │ D2 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 13.71 ┆ 13.00 ┆ 14.25 ┆ 140 │ │ D2 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 13.71 ┆ 12.83 ┆ 14.40 ┆ 142 │ │ D21 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 10.11 ┆ 9.40 ┆ 10.71 ┆ 133 │ │ D21 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 8.04 ┆ 7.49 ┆ 8.56 ┆ 133 │ │ D21 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 10.06 ┆ 8.94 ┆ 10.90 ┆ 140 │ │ D21 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 10.43 ┆ 9.64 ┆ 11.23 ┆ 142 │ │ D22 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 13.89 ┆ 12.64 ┆ 15.06 ┆ 133 │ │ D22 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 13.29 ┆ 12.19 ┆ 14.45 ┆ 134 │ │ D22 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 12.26 ┆ 11.15 ┆ 12.93 ┆ 139 │ │ D22 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 11.26 ┆ 10.21 ┆ 12.47 ┆ 142 │ │ D3 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 8.17 ┆ 7.75 ┆ 8.49 ┆ 133 │ │ D3 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 6.76 ┆ 6.41 ┆ 7.08 ┆ 134 │ │ D3 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 5.51 ┆ 5.17 ┆ 5.78 ┆ 140 │ │ D3 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 6.03 ┆ 5.79 ┆ 6.25 ┆ 142 │ │ D4 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 14.39 ┆ 12.36 ┆ 15.94 ┆ 133 │ │ D4 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 12.25 ┆ 10.89 ┆ 13.49 ┆ 134 │ │ D4 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 13.17 ┆ 11.61 ┆ 14.34 ┆ 140 │ │ D4 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 13.85 ┆ 12.46 ┆ 14.96 ┆ 142 │ │ D5 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 12.03 ┆ 11.12 ┆ 12.78 ┆ 133 │ │ D5 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 11.26 ┆ 10.79 ┆ 11.63 ┆ 134 │ │ D5 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 8.98 ┆ 8.14 ┆ 9.77 ┆ 140 │ │ D5 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 11.00 ┆ 10.41 ┆ 11.56 ┆ 142 │ │ D8 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ -0.43 ┆ -1.74 ┆ 0.87 ┆ 133 │ │ D8 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 0.75 ┆ -0.54 ┆ 2.03 ┆ 134 │ │ D8 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 2.21 ┆ 0.39 ┆ 3.76 ┆ 140 │ │ D8 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ -0.19 ┆ -1.78 ┆ 1.63 ┆ 142 │ │ D9 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 9.52 ┆ 7.90 ┆ 10.79 ┆ 140 │ │ D9 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 9.50 ┆ 8.34 ┆ 10.35 ┆ 142 │ └──────┴────────────────────┴───────┴──────────┴───────────┴──────────┘ == start times == shape: (14, 5) ┌──────┬──────────────────────────────┬────────────────┬─────────────────┬─────────────┐ │ site ┆ start_half_hour_start_minute ┆ low_half_hours ┆ high_half_hours ┆ cold_nights │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ i64 │ ╞══════╪══════════════════════════════╪════════════════╪═════════════════╪═════════════╡ │ D5 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 346 │ │ D9 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 174 │ │ D10 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 357 │ │ D11 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 357 │ │ D14 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 345 │ │ D16 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 348 │ │ D2 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 355 │ │ D3 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 346 │ │ D4 ┆ 30 ┆ -1.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 355 │ │ D8 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 346 │ │ D12 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 345 │ │ D19 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 355 │ │ D21 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 355 │ │ D22 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 345 │ └──────┴──────────────────────────────┴────────────────┴─────────────────┴─────────────┘ ## Known-answer gate (200 draws per cell and series) shape: (9, 6) ┌───────────────────┬───────┬─────────────────┬───────────────┬────────────────┬────────────┐ │ shape ┆ S ┆ pooled_coverage ┆ lowest_series ┆ highest_series ┆ worst_bias │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 │ ╞═══════════════════╪═══════╪═════════════════╪═══════════════╪════════════════╪════════════╡ │ flat ┆ 4.000 ┆ 0.873 ┆ 0.840 ┆ 0.920 ┆ 0.201 │ │ flat ┆ 7.000 ┆ 0.873 ┆ 0.830 ┆ 0.910 ┆ 0.201 │ │ matched ┆ 4.000 ┆ 0.873 ┆ 0.835 ┆ 0.920 ┆ 0.201 │ │ matched ┆ 7.000 ┆ 0.870 ┆ 0.830 ┆ 0.915 ┆ 0.201 │ │ night_temperature ┆ 4.000 ┆ 0.845 ┆ 0.685 ┆ 0.925 ┆ 0.238 │ │ night_temperature ┆ 7.000 ┆ 0.786 ┆ 0.430 ┆ 0.920 ┆ 0.370 │ │ placebo ┆ 0.000 ┆ 0.875 ┆ 0.835 ┆ 0.930 ┆ 0.201 │ │ ramp_plateau ┆ 4.000 ┆ 0.871 ┆ 0.835 ┆ 0.915 ┆ 0.201 │ │ ramp_plateau ┆ 7.000 ┆ 0.875 ┆ 0.820 ┆ 0.925 ┆ 0.201 │ └───────────────────┴───────┴─────────────────┴───────────────┴────────────────┴────────────┘ shape: (14, 7) ┌──────┬─────────┬───────┬──────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┐ │ site ┆ shape ┆ S ┆ coverage ┆ bias ┆ width ┆ power │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ str ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 │ ╞══════╪═════════╪═══════╪══════════╪════════╪═══════╪═══════╡ │ D10 ┆ placebo ┆ 0.000 ┆ 0.880 ┆ -0.019 ┆ 1.026 ┆ 0.045 │ │ D11 ┆ placebo ┆ 0.000 ┆ 0.905 ┆ -0.005 ┆ 0.873 ┆ 0.040 │ │ D12 ┆ placebo ┆ 0.000 ┆ 0.855 ┆ 0.062 ┆ 5.304 ┆ 0.015 │ │ D14 ┆ placebo ┆ 0.000 ┆ 0.885 ┆ -0.003 ┆ 0.975 ┆ 0.075 │ │ D16 ┆ placebo ┆ 0.000 ┆ 0.900 ┆ 0.001 ┆ 1.301 ┆ 0.040 │ │ D19 ┆ placebo ┆ 0.000 ┆ 0.875 ┆ -0.066 ┆ 3.048 ┆ 0.040 │ │ D2 ┆ placebo ┆ 0.000 ┆ 0.930 ┆ -0.010 ┆ 1.279 ┆ 0.010 │ │ D21 ┆ placebo ┆ 0.000 ┆ 0.885 ┆ -0.015 ┆ 1.638 ┆ 0.045 │ │ D22 ┆ placebo ┆ 0.000 ┆ 0.850 ┆ -0.011 ┆ 1.574 ┆ 0.080 │ │ D3 ┆ placebo ┆ 0.000 ┆ 0.860 ┆ -0.014 ┆ 0.381 ┆ 0.050 │ │ D4 ┆ placebo ┆ 0.000 ┆ 0.875 ┆ -0.027 ┆ 2.623 ┆ 0.035 │ │ D5 ┆ placebo ┆ 0.000 ┆ 0.835 ┆ 0.020 ┆ 0.984 ┆ 0.095 │ │ D8 ┆ placebo ┆ 0.000 ┆ 0.845 ┆ -0.201 ┆ 3.883 ┆ 0.055 │ │ D9 ┆ placebo ┆ 0.000 ┆ 0.875 ┆ -0.016 ┆ 1.975 ┆ 0.040 │ └──────┴─────────┴───────┴──────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┘ pooled interval coverage (Hartung-Knapp, series bootstrap): {'draws': 200.0, 'hk': 1.0, 'boot': 1.0} ## Block-length design check (design winters, 100 draws) shape: (6, 4) ┌─────────┬────────────┬──────────┬────────────┐ │ shape ┆ block_days ┆ coverage ┆ mean_width │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 │ ╞═════════╪════════════╪══════════╪════════════╡ │ matched ┆ 7 ┆ 0.881429 ┆ 1.65069 │ │ matched ┆ 14 ┆ 0.858571 ┆ 1.905843 │ │ matched ┆ 28 ┆ 0.835 ┆ 2.134373 │ │ placebo ┆ 7 ┆ 0.883571 ┆ 1.652264 │ │ placebo ┆ 14 ┆ 0.862857 ┆ 1.905562 │ │ placebo ┆ 28 ┆ 0.837143 ┆ 2.135071 │ └─────────┴────────────┴──────────┴────────────┘ ## Substation cards | Series | Step at 3 C, points (90% interval) | Step, MW (MVA at D12) | Slope, points per degree | Cold-dependent part, points | Flat part, points | Summer reference, points | Winters | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | D5 | 10.8 (10.4 to 11.2) | 0.62 | 0.25 (0.16 to 0.32) | 3.1 | 7.7 | -5.2 | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | | D9 | 9.5 (8.6 to 10.4) | 0.68 | 0.38 (0.18 to 0.52) | 4.7 | 4.8 | -13.4 | 2023, 2024 | | D10 | 15.4 (14.9 to 15.8) | 0.83 | 0.37 (0.26 to 0.45) | 4.6 | 10.8 | -5.5 | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | | D11 | 7.0 (6.7 to 7.4) | 0.76 | 0.13 (0.05 to 0.19) | 1.6 | 5.5 | -3.0 | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | | D14 | 3.0 (2.5 to 3.4) | 0.35 | 0.09 (0.01 to 0.15) | 1.1 | 1.8 | -4.2 | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | | D16 | 13.4 (12.9 to 13.8) | 1.22 | 0.26 (0.13 to 0.37) | 3.2 | 10.2 | -4.4 | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | | D2 | 14.7 (14.1 to 15.1) | 2.67 | 0.53 (0.36 to 0.62) | 6.6 | 8.1 | -9.5 | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | | D3 | 6.6 (6.4 to 6.8) | 0.85 | 0.16 (0.12 to 0.20) | 2.1 | 4.6 | -7.3 | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | | D4 | 13.3 (12.2 to 14.3) | 1.62 | 0.41 (0.28 to 0.49) | 5.1 | 8.3 | -11.4 | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | | D8 | 0.5 (-0.7 to 1.7) | 0.05 | 0.19 (0.09 to 0.29) | 2.4 | -2.0 | -0.7 | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | | D12 | 14.9 (13.2 to 16.4) | 0.70 | 0.46 (0.16 to 0.67) | 5.7 | 9.2 | -2.3 | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | | D19 | 33.5 (32.1 to 34.5) | 1.82 | 1.12 (0.84 to 1.29) | 14.0 | 19.4 | -10.5 | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | | D21 | 9.6 (9.1 to 10.1) | 0.54 | 0.19 (0.10 to 0.25) | 2.4 | 7.2 | -5.9 | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | | D22 | 12.7 (12.0 to 13.3) | 0.41 | 0.16 (0.04 to 0.26) | 2.0 | 10.7 | -6.0 | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | | Series | Start of the step (half-hour starting) | Cold BST nights | Pre-registered label | Post hoc jump shift on BST nights, half-hours | R / full step (baseline model) | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | D5 | 00:30 | 75 | UTC | 2 | 0.78 | | D9 | 00:30 | 18 | UTC | 9 | n/a | | D10 | 00:30 | 88 | UTC | 2 | 0.63 | | D11 | 00:30 | 90 | UTC | 2 | 0.68 | | D14 | 00:30 | 75 | UTC | 4 | 2.05 | | D16 | 00:30 | 68 | UTC | 2 | 0.53 | | D2 | 00:30 | 83 | UTC | 2 | n/a | | D3 | 00:30 | 75 | UTC | 2 | n/a | | D4 | 00:30 | 83 | UTC | 2 | n/a | | D8 | 00:30 | 75 | UTC | 2 | n/a | | D12 | 00:30 | 75 | UTC | 2 | n/a | | D19 | 00:30 | 83 | UTC | 2 | n/a | | D21 | 00:30 | 83 | UTC | 2 | n/a | | D22 | 00:30 | 75 | UTC | 2 | n/a | ## Cold nights: actual demand against the baseline forecast D5: 72 cold nights; largest median miss +5.6 points in the half-hour starting 01:00; morning rise at 07:00 (actual) and 06:00 (forecast) D9: 72 cold nights D10: 72 cold nights; largest median miss -12.2 points in the half-hour starting 23:30; morning rise at 06:30 (actual) and 06:30 (forecast) D11: 72 cold nights; largest median miss -3.6 points in the half-hour starting 23:00; morning rise at 06:00 (actual) and 06:00 (forecast) D14: 72 cold nights; largest median miss +2.8 points in the half-hour starting 02:00; morning rise at 06:00 (actual) and 06:00 (forecast) D16: 72 cold nights; largest median miss +9.4 points in the half-hour starting 01:00; morning rise at 06:00 (actual) and 06:30 (forecast) D2: 72 cold nights D3: 72 cold nights D4: 72 cold nights D8: 72 cold nights D12: 72 cold nights D19: 72 cold nights D21: 72 cold nights D22: 72 cold nights ## Follow-up readouts (post hoc, exploratory) == 1. share of cold nights whose largest rise falls at each clock's step == shape: (14, 7) ┌──────┬───────┬───────────────────┬─────────────────┬──────────┬──────────────────────┬────────────────────┐ │ site ┆ bst_n ┆ bst_at_local_step ┆ bst_at_utc_step ┆ winter_n ┆ winter_at_local_step ┆ winter_at_utc_step │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 │ ╞══════╪═══════╪═══════════════════╪═════════════════╪══════════╪══════════════════════╪════════════════════╡ │ D5 ┆ 75 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.92 ┆ 346 ┆ 1.00 ┆ 0.00 │ │ D9 ┆ 18 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.50 ┆ 174 ┆ 0.90 ┆ 0.00 │ │ D10 ┆ 88 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.72 ┆ 357 ┆ 0.97 ┆ 0.00 │ │ D11 ┆ 90 ┆ 0.03 ┆ 0.59 ┆ 357 ┆ 0.75 ┆ 0.01 │ │ D14 ┆ 75 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.24 ┆ 345 ┆ 0.72 ┆ 0.00 │ │ D16 ┆ 68 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.85 ┆ 348 ┆ 0.87 ┆ 0.00 │ │ D2 ┆ 83 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 1.00 ┆ 355 ┆ 1.00 ┆ 0.00 │ │ D3 ┆ 75 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 1.00 ┆ 346 ┆ 1.00 ┆ 0.00 │ │ D4 ┆ 83 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.96 ┆ 355 ┆ 1.00 ┆ 0.00 │ │ D8 ┆ 75 ┆ 0.08 ┆ 0.65 ┆ 346 ┆ 0.85 ┆ 0.00 │ │ D12 ┆ 75 ┆ 0.03 ┆ 0.59 ┆ 344 ┆ 0.66 ┆ 0.04 │ │ D19 ┆ 83 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.99 ┆ 355 ┆ 1.00 ┆ 0.00 │ │ D21 ┆ 83 ┆ 0.01 ┆ 0.81 ┆ 355 ┆ 0.94 ┆ 0.00 │ │ D22 ┆ 75 ┆ 0.11 ┆ 0.73 ┆ 345 ┆ 0.90 ┆ 0.00 │ └──────┴───────┴───────────────────┴─────────────────┴──────────┴──────────────────────┴────────────────────┘ == 2. window shape on cold winter nights == shape: (14, 8) ┌──────┬────────────────┬─────────────────┬─────────────────┬─────────────────┬─────────────────────┬─────────────────────┬─────────────┐ │ site ┆ plateau_points ┆ reached_at_0000 ┆ reached_at_0030 ┆ reached_at_0100 ┆ largest_fall_starts ┆ largest_fall_points ┆ second_rise │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ str ┆ f64 ┆ str │ ╞══════╪════════════════╪═════════════════╪═════════════════╪═════════════════╪═════════════════════╪═════════════════════╪═════════════╡ │ D5 ┆ 10.01 ┆ 0.18 ┆ 0.93 ┆ 1.21 ┆ 09:30 ┆ -1.20 ┆ none │ │ D9 ┆ 8.65 ┆ 0.36 ┆ 0.91 ┆ 1.09 ┆ 07:30 ┆ -0.48 ┆ none │ │ D10 ┆ 14.30 ┆ 0.34 ┆ 0.99 ┆ 1.16 ┆ 07:30 ┆ -0.36 ┆ none │ │ D11 ┆ 6.80 ┆ 0.27 ┆ 0.85 ┆ 1.10 ┆ 08:00 ┆ 0.19 ┆ none │ │ D14 ┆ 2.46 ┆ 0.07 ┆ 1.16 ┆ 1.46 ┆ 05:30 ┆ -0.42 ┆ none │ │ D16 ┆ 12.19 ┆ 0.47 ┆ 1.09 ┆ 1.21 ┆ 09:30 ┆ -0.32 ┆ none │ │ D2 ┆ 12.23 ┆ 0.44 ┆ 1.19 ┆ 1.27 ┆ 07:30 ┆ -0.77 ┆ none │ │ D3 ┆ 5.80 ┆ 0.17 ┆ 1.09 ┆ 1.32 ┆ 09:30 ┆ 0.34 ┆ none │ │ D4 ┆ 12.03 ┆ 0.56 ┆ 1.03 ┆ 1.11 ┆ 09:00 ┆ -2.66 ┆ none │ │ D8 ┆ -0.32 ┆ null ┆ null ┆ null ┆ 09:30 ┆ -1.19 ┆ none │ │ D12 ┆ 14.78 ┆ 0.19 ┆ 0.81 ┆ 1.00 ┆ 08:30 ┆ -9.07 ┆ none │ │ D19 ┆ 29.68 ┆ 0.38 ┆ 1.02 ┆ 1.16 ┆ 07:30 ┆ -4.75 ┆ none │ │ D21 ┆ 8.42 ┆ 0.45 ┆ 1.13 ┆ 1.23 ┆ 09:30 ┆ 0.19 ┆ none │ │ D22 ┆ 11.90 ┆ 0.36 ┆ 1.02 ┆ 1.12 ┆ 09:30 ┆ -1.25 ┆ none │ └──────┴────────────────┴─────────────────┴─────────────────┴─────────────────┴─────────────────────┴─────────────────────┴─────────────┘ == 3. step by winter == shape: (14, 6) ┌──────┬─────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬─────────────┐ │ site ┆ winters ┆ first ┆ last ┆ change ┆ label │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ str │ ╞══════╪═════════╪═══════╪═══════╪════════╪═════════════╡ │ D5 ┆ 4 ┆ 12.03 ┆ 11.00 ┆ -1.03 ┆ cannot tell │ │ D9 ┆ 2 ┆ 9.52 ┆ 9.50 ┆ -0.02 ┆ cannot tell │ │ D10 ┆ 4 ┆ 17.04 ┆ 14.22 ┆ -2.82 ┆ falls │ │ D11 ┆ 4 ┆ 6.57 ┆ 7.75 ┆ 1.18 ┆ rises │ │ D14 ┆ 4 ┆ 4.20 ┆ 3.04 ┆ -1.16 ┆ cannot tell │ │ D16 ┆ 4 ┆ 15.01 ┆ 14.35 ┆ -0.66 ┆ cannot tell │ │ D2 ┆ 4 ┆ 16.49 ┆ 13.71 ┆ -2.78 ┆ falls │ │ D3 ┆ 4 ┆ 8.17 ┆ 6.03 ┆ -2.14 ┆ falls │ │ D4 ┆ 4 ┆ 14.39 ┆ 13.85 ┆ -0.54 ┆ cannot tell │ │ D8 ┆ 4 ┆ -0.43 ┆ -0.19 ┆ 0.25 ┆ cannot tell │ │ D12 ┆ 4 ┆ 19.58 ┆ 18.23 ┆ -1.34 ┆ cannot tell │ │ D19 ┆ 4 ┆ 40.17 ┆ 30.22 ┆ -9.95 ┆ falls │ │ D21 ┆ 4 ┆ 10.11 ┆ 10.43 ┆ 0.32 ┆ cannot tell │ │ D22 ┆ 4 ┆ 13.89 ┆ 11.26 ┆ -2.63 ┆ falls │ └──────┴─────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴─────────────┘ == follow-up card rows (markdown) == | Series | Largest rise at the local-clock step, cold BST nights | At the UTC step, cold BST nights | Same two shares, cold winter nights | Plateau reached by the half-hour starting 00:00 / 00:30 | Largest fall 05:00 to 10:00 | Second rise | Step by winter | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | D5 | 0% | 92% | 100% / 0% | 0.18 / 0.93 | 09:30 (-1.2) | none | cannot tell (-1.0) | | D9 | 0% | 50% | 90% / 0% | 0.36 / 0.91 | 07:30 (-0.5) | none | cannot tell (-0.0) | | D10 | 0% | 72% | 97% / 0% | 0.34 / 0.99 | 07:30 (-0.4) | none | falls (-2.8) | | D11 | 3% | 59% | 75% / 1% | 0.27 / 0.85 | 08:00 (+0.2) | none | rises (+1.2) | | D14 | 0% | 24% | 72% / 0% | 0.07 / 1.16 | 05:30 (-0.4) | none | cannot tell (-1.2) | | D16 | 0% | 85% | 87% / 0% | 0.47 / 1.09 | 09:30 (-0.3) | none | cannot tell (-0.7) | | D2 | 0% | 100% | 100% / 0% | 0.44 / 1.19 | 07:30 (-0.8) | none | falls (-2.8) | | D3 | 0% | 100% | 100% / 0% | 0.17 / 1.09 | 09:30 (+0.3) | none | falls (-2.1) | | D4 | 0% | 96% | 100% / 0% | 0.56 / 1.03 | 09:00 (-2.7) | none | cannot tell (-0.5) | | D8 | 8% | 65% | 85% / 0% | no step | 09:30 (-1.2) | none | cannot tell (+0.2) | | D12 | 3% | 59% | 66% / 4% | 0.19 / 0.81 | 08:30 (-9.1) | none | cannot tell (-1.3) | | D19 | 0% | 99% | 100% / 0% | 0.38 / 1.02 | 07:30 (-4.8) | none | falls (-9.9) | | D21 | 1% | 81% | 94% / 0% | 0.45 / 1.13 | 09:30 (+0.2) | none | cannot tell (+0.3) | | D22 | 11% | 73% | 90% / 0% | 0.36 / 1.02 | 09:30 (-1.3) | none | falls (-2.6) | ## UTC-fixed and local-clock shares by year (post hoc, exploratory) | Series | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | D5 | 96% / 0% (25) | 100% / 0% (12) | 100% / 0% (13) | 92% / 0% (13) | cannot tell (4) | | D9 | cannot tell | cannot tell | cannot tell (1) | 55% / 0% (11) | cannot tell (6) | | D10 | 45% / 0% (31) | 79% / 0% (14) | 71% / 0% (14) | 100% / 0% (15) | cannot tell (5) | | D11 | 61% / 3% (31) | 57% / 7% (14) | 57% / 0% (14) | 53% / 7% (15) | cannot tell (5) | | D14 | 12% / 0% (25) | 25% / 0% (12) | 46% / 0% (13) | 15% / 8% (13) | cannot tell (4) | | D16 | 100% / 0% (26) | 92% / 0% (12) | 77% / 0% (13) | 69% / 0% (13) | cannot tell (4) | | D2 | 100% / 0% (31) | 100% / 0% (12) | 100% / 0% (13) | 100% / 0% (11) | cannot tell (6) | | D3 | 100% / 0% (25) | 100% / 0% (12) | 100% / 0% (13) | 100% / 0% (13) | cannot tell (4) | | D4 | 100% / 0% (31) | 100% / 0% (12) | 100% / 0% (13) | 100% / 0% (11) | cannot tell (6) | | D8 | 88% / 0% (25) | 67% / 0% (12) | 31% / 31% (13) | 62% / 8% (13) | cannot tell (4) | | D12 | 76% / 0% (25) | 58% / 0% (12) | 15% / 8% (13) | 46% / 15% (13) | cannot tell (4) | | D19 | 100% / 0% (31) | 92% / 0% (12) | 100% / 0% (13) | 100% / 0% (11) | cannot tell (6) | | D21 | 97% / 0% (31) | 58% / 0% (12) | 85% / 0% (13) | 45% / 9% (11) | cannot tell (6) | | D22 | 88% / 0% (25) | 83% / 0% (12) | 38% / 38% (13) | 62% / 8% (13) | cannot tell (4) | ## Tariff edges on the local clock (post hoc, exploratory) == placebo edges: share of series-years whose 90% interval excludes 0 (5% expected) == shape: (4, 3) ┌───────────────┬──────────────────────┬───────┐ │ edge ┆ share_excluding_zero ┆ cells │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ f64 ┆ u32 │ ╞═══════════════╪══════════════════════╪═══════╡ │ placebo 21:00 ┆ 0.79 ┆ 68 │ │ placebo 18:30 ┆ 0.76 ┆ 68 │ │ placebo 03:30 ┆ 0.76 ┆ 68 │ │ placebo 10:00 ┆ 0.76 ┆ 68 │ └───────────────┴──────────────────────┴───────┘ == detection limit: median half-width of the 90% interval, points == shape: (2, 3) ┌─────────────┬───────────────────┬────────────────┐ │ kind ┆ median_half_width ┆ max_half_width │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ f64 ┆ f64 │ ╞═════════════╪═══════════════════╪════════════════╡ │ placebo ┆ 0.32 ┆ 2.10 │ │ tariff edge ┆ 0.30 ┆ 3.90 │ └─────────────┴───────────────────┴────────────────┘ == tariff edges: series-years in which the expected-sign edge is visible == shape: (9, 4) ┌─────────────────────────────────┬──────────────┬─────────┬─────────────────┐ │ edge ┆ series_years ┆ visible ┆ median_estimate │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ u32 ┆ u32 ┆ f64 │ ╞═════════════════════════════════╪══════════════╪═════════╪═════════════════╡ │ Cosy closes 07:00 ┆ 54 ┆ 0 ┆ 2.93 │ │ Cosy closes 16:00 ┆ 54 ┆ 2 ┆ 3.54 │ │ Cosy opens 04:00 ┆ 54 ┆ 16 ┆ -0.18 │ │ Cosy opens 13:00 ┆ 54 ┆ 34 ┆ 1.23 │ │ Cosy opens 22:00 ┆ 54 ┆ 0 ┆ -1.56 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go closes … ┆ 68 ┆ 33 ┆ -0.24 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go opens 2… ┆ 68 ┆ 7 ┆ -0.55 │ │ Octopus Go closes 05:30 ┆ 68 ┆ 33 ┆ -0.24 │ │ Octopus Go opens 00:30 ┆ 68 ┆ 47 ┆ 0.45 │ └─────────────────────────────────┴──────────────┴─────────┴─────────────────┘ == tariff edges: substations visible in at least two years == shape: (44, 4) ┌─────────────────────────────────┬──────┬───────┬───────────────┐ │ edge ┆ site ┆ years ┆ mean_estimate │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ str ┆ u32 ┆ f64 │ ╞═════════════════════════════════╪══════╪═══════╪═══════════════╡ │ Cosy closes 16:00 ┆ D8 ┆ 2 ┆ -9.14 │ │ Cosy opens 04:00 ┆ D16 ┆ 2 ┆ 0.37 │ │ Cosy opens 04:00 ┆ D22 ┆ 3 ┆ 1.54 │ │ Cosy opens 04:00 ┆ D3 ┆ 4 ┆ 0.77 │ │ Cosy opens 04:00 ┆ D4 ┆ 3 ┆ 0.24 │ │ Cosy opens 04:00 ┆ D8 ┆ 2 ┆ 0.88 │ │ Cosy opens 13:00 ┆ D10 ┆ 4 ┆ 3.08 │ │ Cosy opens 13:00 ┆ D11 ┆ 3 ┆ 0.77 │ │ Cosy opens 13:00 ┆ D14 ┆ 2 ┆ 0.63 │ │ Cosy opens 13:00 ┆ D16 ┆ 4 ┆ 1.73 │ │ Cosy opens 13:00 ┆ D19 ┆ 4 ┆ 3.01 │ │ Cosy opens 13:00 ┆ D2 ┆ 4 ┆ 1.59 │ │ Cosy opens 13:00 ┆ D21 ┆ 4 ┆ 1.56 │ │ Cosy opens 13:00 ┆ D22 ┆ 3 ┆ 2.69 │ │ Cosy opens 13:00 ┆ D4 ┆ 4 ┆ 0.48 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go closes … ┆ D11 ┆ 2 ┆ -0.63 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go closes … ┆ D16 ┆ 4 ┆ -0.79 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go closes … ┆ D19 ┆ 2 ┆ -0.42 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go closes … ┆ D2 ┆ 5 ┆ -0.37 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go closes … ┆ D21 ┆ 2 ┆ -0.30 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go closes … ┆ D3 ┆ 5 ┆ -0.57 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go closes … ┆ D4 ┆ 5 ┆ -0.45 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go closes … ┆ D8 ┆ 5 ┆ -2.50 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go opens 2… ┆ D16 ┆ 3 ┆ 0.56 │ │ Octopus Go closes 05:30 ┆ D11 ┆ 2 ┆ -0.63 │ │ Octopus Go closes 05:30 ┆ D16 ┆ 4 ┆ -0.79 │ │ Octopus Go closes 05:30 ┆ D19 ┆ 2 ┆ -0.42 │ │ Octopus Go closes 05:30 ┆ D2 ┆ 5 ┆ -0.37 │ │ Octopus Go closes 05:30 ┆ D21 ┆ 2 ┆ -0.30 │ │ Octopus Go closes 05:30 ┆ D3 ┆ 5 ┆ -0.57 │ │ Octopus Go closes 05:30 ┆ D4 ┆ 5 ┆ -0.45 │ │ Octopus Go closes 05:30 ┆ D8 ┆ 5 ┆ -2.50 │ │ Octopus Go opens 00:30 ┆ D10 ┆ 4 ┆ 0.71 │ │ Octopus Go opens 00:30 ┆ D11 ┆ 5 ┆ 0.70 │ │ Octopus Go opens 00:30 ┆ D14 ┆ 3 ┆ 0.51 │ │ Octopus Go opens 00:30 ┆ D16 ┆ 2 ┆ 0.38 │ │ Octopus Go opens 00:30 ┆ D2 ┆ 5 ┆ 0.51 │ │ Octopus Go opens 00:30 ┆ D21 ┆ 5 ┆ 0.56 │ │ Octopus Go opens 00:30 ┆ D22 ┆ 5 ┆ 1.61 │ │ Octopus Go opens 00:30 ┆ D3 ┆ 4 ┆ 0.27 │ │ Octopus Go opens 00:30 ┆ D4 ┆ 4 ┆ 0.26 │ │ Octopus Go opens 00:30 ┆ D5 ┆ 5 ┆ 1.08 │ │ Octopus Go opens 00:30 ┆ D8 ┆ 3 ┆ 1.28 │ │ Octopus Go opens 00:30 ┆ D9 ┆ 2 ┆ 0.52 │ └─────────────────────────────────┴──────┴───────┴───────────────┘ == injected step: recovery of S at one real edge series == S=0: estimate -0.53, interval -0.78 to -0.27 (shifted by exactly S) S=1: estimate 0.47, interval 0.22 to 0.73 (shifted by exactly S) S=2: estimate 1.47, interval 1.22 to 1.73 (shifted by exactly S) S=4: estimate 3.47, interval 3.22 to 3.73 (shifted by exactly S) == change from first to last year: placebo false-positive rate (either sign) == shape: (4, 3) ┌───────────────┬───────────────┬───────────┐ │ edge ┆ share_changed ┆ median_se │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ f64 ┆ f64 │ ╞═══════════════╪═══════════════╪═══════════╡ │ placebo 03:30 ┆ 0.21 ┆ 0.20 │ │ placebo 10:00 ┆ 0.36 ┆ 0.36 │ │ placebo 21:00 ┆ 0.43 ┆ 0.30 │ │ placebo 18:30 ┆ 0.21 ┆ 0.34 │ └───────────────┴───────────────┴───────────┘ == change from first to last year: tariff edges, expected sign == shape: (9, 5) ┌─────────────────────────────────┬─────────────┬─────────┬───────────────┬────────────────┐ │ edge ┆ substations ┆ visible ┆ median_change ┆ largest_change │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ u32 ┆ u32 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 │ ╞═════════════════════════════════╪═════════════╪═════════╪═══════════════╪════════════════╡ │ Cosy closes 07:00 ┆ 14 ┆ 6 ┆ -0.50 ┆ 3.45 │ │ Cosy closes 16:00 ┆ 14 ┆ 6 ┆ -0.78 ┆ 12.43 │ │ Cosy opens 04:00 ┆ 14 ┆ 6 ┆ 0.19 ┆ 3.90 │ │ Cosy opens 13:00 ┆ 14 ┆ 0 ┆ 0.05 ┆ 2.90 │ │ Cosy opens 22:00 ┆ 14 ┆ 5 ┆ 0.33 ┆ 3.42 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go closes … ┆ 14 ┆ 4 ┆ 0.03 ┆ 2.55 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go opens 2… ┆ 14 ┆ 8 ┆ 0.63 ┆ 2.54 │ │ Octopus Go closes 05:30 ┆ 14 ┆ 4 ┆ 0.03 ┆ 2.55 │ │ Octopus Go opens 00:30 ┆ 14 ┆ 3 ┆ -0.06 ┆ 1.39 │ └─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────┴─────────┴───────────────┴────────────────┘ == empirical detection limit: placebo 90th pct |change| = 1.19 points == shape: (9, 3) ┌─────────────────────────────────┬──────────────┬─────────────┐ │ edge ┆ beyond_limit ┆ substations │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ u32 ┆ u32 │ ╞═════════════════════════════════╪══════════════╪═════════════╡ │ Cosy closes 07:00 ┆ 4 ┆ 14 │ │ Cosy closes 16:00 ┆ 5 ┆ 14 │ │ Cosy opens 04:00 ┆ 2 ┆ 14 │ │ Cosy opens 13:00 ┆ 2 ┆ 14 │ │ Cosy opens 22:00 ┆ 3 ┆ 14 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go closes … ┆ 1 ┆ 14 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go opens 2… ┆ 1 ┆ 14 │ │ Octopus Go closes 05:30 ┆ 1 ┆ 14 │ │ Octopus Go opens 00:30 ┆ 0 ┆ 14 │ └─────────────────────────────────┴──────────────┴─────────────┘ shape: (19, 3) ┌─────────────────────────────────┬──────┬────────┐ │ edge ┆ site ┆ change │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ str ┆ f64 │ ╞═════════════════════════════════╪══════╪════════╡ │ Cosy closes 07:00 ┆ D11 ┆ -1.95 │ │ Cosy closes 07:00 ┆ D21 ┆ -1.55 │ │ Cosy closes 07:00 ┆ D22 ┆ -2.43 │ │ Cosy closes 07:00 ┆ D8 ┆ -3.45 │ │ Cosy closes 16:00 ┆ D10 ┆ -2.32 │ │ Cosy closes 16:00 ┆ D12 ┆ -7.73 │ │ Cosy closes 16:00 ┆ D16 ┆ -1.52 │ │ Cosy closes 16:00 ┆ D22 ┆ -1.40 │ │ Cosy closes 16:00 ┆ D8 ┆ -12.43 │ │ Cosy opens 04:00 ┆ D12 ┆ 3.90 │ │ Cosy opens 04:00 ┆ D8 ┆ 2.06 │ │ Cosy opens 13:00 ┆ D12 ┆ 2.90 │ │ Cosy opens 13:00 ┆ D8 ┆ 1.31 │ │ Cosy opens 22:00 ┆ D19 ┆ 1.21 │ │ Cosy opens 22:00 ┆ D3 ┆ 1.20 │ │ Cosy opens 22:00 ┆ D8 ┆ 3.39 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go closes … ┆ D8 ┆ -2.31 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go opens 2… ┆ D8 ┆ 2.54 │ │ Octopus Go closes 05:30 ┆ D8 ┆ -2.31 │ └─────────────────────────────────┴──────┴────────┘ == substations where the expected-sign change is visible == shape: (42, 6) ┌─────────────────────────────────┬──────┬────────────┬───────────┬────────┬──────┐ │ edge ┆ site ┆ first_year ┆ last_year ┆ change ┆ se │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ str ┆ i64 ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 │ ╞═════════════════════════════════╪══════╪════════════╪═══════════╪════════╪══════╡ │ Cosy closes 07:00 ┆ D11 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ -1.95 ┆ 0.42 │ │ Cosy closes 07:00 ┆ D14 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ -0.93 ┆ 0.30 │ │ Cosy closes 07:00 ┆ D21 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ -1.55 ┆ 0.35 │ │ Cosy closes 07:00 ┆ D22 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ -2.43 ┆ 0.75 │ │ Cosy closes 07:00 ┆ D3 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ -0.62 ┆ 0.24 │ │ Cosy closes 07:00 ┆ D9 ┆ 2023 ┆ 2024 ┆ -0.77 ┆ 0.21 │ │ Cosy closes 16:00 ┆ D10 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ -2.32 ┆ 0.54 │ │ Cosy closes 16:00 ┆ D12 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ -7.73 ┆ 2.68 │ │ Cosy closes 16:00 ┆ D16 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ -1.52 ┆ 0.72 │ │ Cosy closes 16:00 ┆ D2 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ -0.97 ┆ 0.43 │ │ Cosy closes 16:00 ┆ D22 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ -1.40 ┆ 0.67 │ │ Cosy closes 16:00 ┆ D8 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ -12.43 ┆ 2.17 │ │ Cosy opens 04:00 ┆ D12 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ 3.90 ┆ 1.74 │ │ Cosy opens 04:00 ┆ D19 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ 0.47 ┆ 0.25 │ │ Cosy opens 04:00 ┆ D2 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ 0.45 ┆ 0.10 │ │ Cosy opens 04:00 ┆ D21 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ 0.78 ┆ 0.19 │ │ Cosy opens 04:00 ┆ D4 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ 0.23 ┆ 0.09 │ │ Cosy opens 04:00 ┆ D8 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ 2.06 ┆ 0.23 │ │ Cosy opens 22:00 ┆ D10 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ 0.63 ┆ 0.30 │ │ Cosy opens 22:00 ┆ D11 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ 0.53 ┆ 0.19 │ │ Cosy opens 22:00 ┆ D19 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ 1.21 ┆ 0.42 │ │ Cosy opens 22:00 ┆ D3 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ 1.20 ┆ 0.11 │ │ Cosy opens 22:00 ┆ D8 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2024 ┆ 3.39 ┆ 1.38 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go closes … ┆ D11 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2025 ┆ -0.88 ┆ 0.15 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go closes … ┆ D16 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2025 ┆ -0.82 ┆ 0.22 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go closes … ┆ D8 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2025 ┆ -2.31 ┆ 0.65 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go closes … ┆ D9 ┆ 2023 ┆ 2025 ┆ -0.42 ┆ 0.11 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go opens 2… ┆ D11 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2025 ┆ 0.77 ┆ 0.19 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go opens 2… ┆ D14 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2025 ┆ 1.10 ┆ 0.36 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go opens 2… ┆ D16 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2025 ┆ 0.68 ┆ 0.22 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go opens 2… ┆ D19 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2025 ┆ 1.10 ┆ 0.30 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go opens 2… ┆ D2 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2025 ┆ 0.40 ┆ 0.18 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go opens 2… ┆ D21 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2025 ┆ 0.67 ┆ 0.23 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go opens 2… ┆ D4 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2025 ┆ 0.60 ┆ 0.21 │ │ Intelligent Octopus Go opens 2… ┆ D8 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2025 ┆ 2.54 ┆ 0.73 │ │ Octopus Go closes 05:30 ┆ D11 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2025 ┆ -0.88 ┆ 0.15 │ │ Octopus Go closes 05:30 ┆ D16 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2025 ┆ -0.82 ┆ 0.23 │ │ Octopus Go closes 05:30 ┆ D8 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2025 ┆ -2.31 ┆ 0.67 │ │ Octopus Go closes 05:30 ┆ D9 ┆ 2023 ┆ 2025 ┆ -0.42 ┆ 0.11 │ │ Octopus Go opens 00:30 ┆ D10 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2025 ┆ 0.76 ┆ 0.20 │ │ Octopus Go opens 00:30 ┆ D21 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2025 ┆ 0.27 ┆ 0.16 │ │ Octopus Go opens 00:30 ┆ D3 ┆ 2021 ┆ 2025 ┆ 0.62 ┆ 0.06 │ └─────────────────────────────────┴──────┴────────────┴───────────┴────────┴──────┘ # Stage all (winter 2025-26 included) ## Fits, cross-checks, and sensitivities, stage all == unpooled == shape: (14, 17) ┌──────┬─────────────────────────────────┬──────────────────────────┬───────────┬──────────┬───────┬───────────┬────────────┬───────┬──────────┬───────────┬───────┬──────────┬───────────┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────────────────┐ │ site ┆ winter_set ┆ winters ┆ n_winters ┆ n_nights ┆ slope ┆ slope_low ┆ slope_high ┆ flat ┆ flat_low ┆ flat_high ┆ step ┆ step_low ┆ step_high ┆ step_sd ┆ step_mw ┆ detectable_interval │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ str ┆ str ┆ i64 ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ bool │ ╞══════╪═════════════════════════════════╪══════════════════════════╪═══════════╪══════════╪═══════╪═══════════╪════════════╪═══════╪══════════╪═══════════╪═══════╪══════════╪═══════════╪═════════╪═════════╪═════════════════════╡ │ D5 ┆ all: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024,2025 ┆ 5 ┆ 691 ┆ 0.19 ┆ 0.08 ┆ 0.28 ┆ 8.68 ┆ 7.70 ┆ 9.78 ┆ 11.06 ┆ 10.50 ┆ 11.55 ┆ 0.32 ┆ 0.63 ┆ true │ │ D9 ┆ all: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2… ┆ 2023,2024,2025 ┆ 3 ┆ 424 ┆ 0.33 ┆ 0.17 ┆ 0.43 ┆ 5.19 ┆ 4.01 ┆ 6.85 ┆ 9.31 ┆ 8.46 ┆ 10.04 ┆ 0.50 ┆ 0.66 ┆ true │ │ D10 ┆ all: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024,2025 ┆ 5 ┆ 691 ┆ 0.37 ┆ 0.28 ┆ 0.45 ┆ 11.17 ┆ 10.27 ┆ 12.31 ┆ 15.84 ┆ 15.42 ┆ 16.21 ┆ 0.24 ┆ 0.86 ┆ true │ │ D11 ┆ all: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024,2025 ┆ 5 ┆ 691 ┆ 0.12 ┆ 0.05 ┆ 0.17 ┆ 5.66 ┆ 5.02 ┆ 6.46 ┆ 7.17 ┆ 6.81 ┆ 7.47 ┆ 0.21 ┆ 0.77 ┆ true │ │ D14 ┆ all: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024,2025 ┆ 5 ┆ 691 ┆ 0.07 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.12 ┆ 2.10 ┆ 1.51 ┆ 2.86 ┆ 2.99 ┆ 2.57 ┆ 3.40 ┆ 0.25 ┆ 0.35 ┆ true │ │ D16 ┆ all: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024,2025 ┆ 5 ┆ 691 ┆ 0.29 ┆ 0.17 ┆ 0.39 ┆ 10.23 ┆ 9.14 ┆ 11.64 ┆ 13.91 ┆ 13.32 ┆ 14.36 ┆ 0.32 ┆ 1.27 ┆ true │ │ D2 ┆ all: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024,2025 ┆ 5 ┆ 691 ┆ 0.51 ┆ 0.37 ┆ 0.58 ┆ 8.10 ┆ 7.27 ┆ 9.65 ┆ 14.42 ┆ 13.87 ┆ 14.80 ┆ 0.29 ┆ 2.63 ┆ true │ │ D3 ┆ all: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024,2025 ┆ 5 ┆ 691 ┆ 0.15 ┆ 0.11 ┆ 0.18 ┆ 4.68 ┆ 4.34 ┆ 5.12 ┆ 6.53 ┆ 6.34 ┆ 6.68 ┆ 0.11 ┆ 0.84 ┆ true │ │ D4 ┆ all: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024,2025 ┆ 5 ┆ 691 ┆ 0.41 ┆ 0.29 ┆ 0.48 ┆ 8.20 ┆ 7.06 ┆ 9.77 ┆ 13.27 ┆ 12.17 ┆ 14.29 ┆ 0.64 ┆ 1.61 ┆ true │ │ D8 ┆ all: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024,2025 ┆ 5 ┆ 691 ┆ 0.24 ┆ 0.15 ┆ 0.32 ┆ -2.14 ┆ -3.69 ┆ -0.62 ┆ 0.83 ┆ -0.52 ┆ 2.10 ┆ 0.84 ┆ 0.09 ┆ false │ │ D12 ┆ all: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024,2025 ┆ 5 ┆ 690 ┆ 0.52 ┆ 0.28 ┆ 0.71 ┆ 10.28 ┆ 7.71 ┆ 13.71 ┆ 16.84 ┆ 15.33 ┆ 18.27 ┆ 0.92 ┆ 0.79 ┆ true │ │ D19 ┆ all: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024,2025 ┆ 5 ┆ 691 ┆ 1.12 ┆ 0.89 ┆ 1.28 ┆ 18.86 ┆ 16.83 ┆ 21.62 ┆ 32.89 ┆ 31.62 ┆ 33.89 ┆ 0.67 ┆ 1.79 ┆ true │ │ D21 ┆ all: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024,2025 ┆ 5 ┆ 690 ┆ 0.22 ┆ 0.13 ┆ 0.28 ┆ 6.92 ┆ 6.13 ┆ 7.90 ┆ 9.66 ┆ 9.07 ┆ 10.17 ┆ 0.33 ┆ 0.54 ┆ true │ │ D22 ┆ all: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2… ┆ 2021,2022,2023,2024,2025 ┆ 5 ┆ 690 ┆ 0.19 ┆ 0.08 ┆ 0.28 ┆ 10.07 ┆ 9.04 ┆ 11.35 ┆ 12.50 ┆ 11.86 ┆ 13.07 ┆ 0.36 ┆ 0.40 ┆ true │ └──────┴─────────────────────────────────┴──────────────────────────┴───────────┴──────────┴───────┴───────────┴────────────┴───────┴──────────┴───────────┴───────┴──────────┴───────────┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────────────────┘ == raw == shape: (14, 9) ┌──────┬─────────────┬─────────────┬──────────────┬─────────────────────┬────────────────────┬──────────┬───────────────┬─────────────────┐ │ site ┆ cold_nights ┆ mean_cold_c ┆ raw_contrast ┆ d_line_at_mean_cold ┆ gap_raw_minus_line ┆ d_summer ┆ bounded_slope ┆ unbounded_slope │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 │ ╞══════╪═════════════╪═════════════╪══════════════╪═════════════════════╪════════════════════╪══════════╪═══════════════╪═════════════════╡ │ D5 ┆ 431.00 ┆ 10.80 ┆ 10.88 ┆ 10.74 ┆ 0.15 ┆ -5.16 ┆ 0.19 ┆ 0.19 │ │ D9 ┆ 260.00 ┆ 10.30 ┆ 8.50 ┆ 8.59 ┆ -0.08 ┆ -13.42 ┆ 0.33 ┆ 0.33 │ │ D10 ┆ 446.00 ┆ 10.96 ┆ 15.33 ┆ 15.27 ┆ 0.06 ┆ -5.53 ┆ 0.37 ┆ 0.37 │ │ D11 ┆ 446.00 ┆ 10.96 ┆ 6.99 ┆ 6.99 ┆ -0.00 ┆ -3.04 ┆ 0.12 ┆ 0.12 │ │ D14 ┆ 431.00 ┆ 10.80 ┆ 2.85 ┆ 2.87 ┆ -0.02 ┆ -4.19 ┆ 0.07 ┆ 0.07 │ │ D16 ┆ 433.00 ┆ 10.92 ┆ 13.54 ┆ 13.44 ┆ 0.10 ┆ -4.41 ┆ 0.29 ┆ 0.29 │ │ D2 ┆ 441.00 ┆ 10.31 ┆ 13.36 ┆ 13.32 ┆ 0.05 ┆ -9.53 ┆ 0.51 ┆ 0.51 │ │ D3 ┆ 431.00 ┆ 10.80 ┆ 6.32 ┆ 6.28 ┆ 0.04 ┆ -7.34 ┆ 0.15 ┆ 0.15 │ │ D4 ┆ 441.00 ┆ 10.31 ┆ 12.41 ┆ 12.38 ┆ 0.03 ┆ -11.45 ┆ 0.41 ┆ 0.41 │ │ D8 ┆ 431.00 ┆ 10.80 ┆ 0.28 ┆ 0.43 ┆ -0.15 ┆ -0.70 ┆ 0.24 ┆ 0.24 │ │ D12 ┆ 430.00 ┆ 10.81 ┆ 16.12 ┆ 15.95 ┆ 0.17 ┆ -2.34 ┆ 0.52 ┆ 0.52 │ │ D19 ┆ 441.00 ┆ 10.31 ┆ 30.56 ┆ 30.44 ┆ 0.12 ┆ -10.47 ┆ 1.12 ┆ 1.12 │ │ D21 ┆ 441.00 ┆ 10.31 ┆ 9.20 ┆ 9.18 ┆ 0.02 ┆ -5.91 ┆ 0.22 ┆ 0.22 │ │ D22 ┆ 430.00 ┆ 10.81 ┆ 12.15 ┆ 12.17 ┆ -0.03 ┆ -5.99 ┆ 0.19 ┆ 0.19 │ └──────┴─────────────┴─────────────┴──────────────┴─────────────────────┴────────────────────┴──────────┴───────────────┴─────────────────┘ == cold_snap == shape: (28, 6) ┌──────┬────────┬────────┬──────────────────┬──────────────────┬──────┐ │ site ┆ winter ┆ nights ┆ contrast_nov_mar ┆ contrast_nov_feb ┆ note │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ str │ ╞══════╪════════╪════════╪══════════════════╪══════════════════╪══════╡ │ D5 ┆ 2021 ┆ 32.00 ┆ 12.03 ┆ 12.05 ┆ ok │ │ D5 ┆ 2022 ┆ 37.00 ┆ 11.64 ┆ 12.00 ┆ ok │ │ D5 ┆ 2023 ┆ 38.00 ┆ 8.88 ┆ 8.84 ┆ ok │ │ D5 ┆ 2024 ┆ 34.00 ┆ 11.14 ┆ 11.15 ┆ ok │ │ D5 ┆ 2025 ┆ 32.00 ┆ 11.09 ┆ 11.09 ┆ ok │ │ D9 ┆ 2023 ┆ 38.00 ┆ 9.21 ┆ 9.48 ┆ ok │ │ D9 ┆ 2024 ┆ 34.00 ┆ 9.12 ┆ 9.30 ┆ ok │ │ D9 ┆ 2025 ┆ 32.00 ┆ 9.15 ┆ 9.15 ┆ ok │ │ D10 ┆ 2021 ┆ 32.00 ┆ 17.39 ┆ 17.43 ┆ ok │ │ D10 ┆ 2022 ┆ 37.00 ┆ 16.69 ┆ 16.54 ┆ ok │ │ D10 ┆ 2023 ┆ 38.00 ┆ 15.00 ┆ 15.07 ┆ ok │ │ D10 ┆ 2024 ┆ 34.00 ┆ 14.38 ┆ 14.34 ┆ ok │ │ D10 ┆ 2025 ┆ 32.00 ┆ 17.69 ┆ 17.69 ┆ ok │ │ D11 ┆ 2021 ┆ 32.00 ┆ 6.90 ┆ 6.97 ┆ ok │ │ D11 ┆ 2022 ┆ 37.00 ┆ 7.04 ┆ 7.01 ┆ ok │ │ D11 ┆ 2023 ┆ 38.00 ┆ 7.02 ┆ 6.99 ┆ ok │ │ D11 ┆ 2024 ┆ 34.00 ┆ 7.57 ┆ 7.48 ┆ ok │ │ D11 ┆ 2025 ┆ 32.00 ┆ 7.55 ┆ 7.55 ┆ ok │ │ D14 ┆ 2021 ┆ 32.00 ┆ 3.97 ┆ 4.02 ┆ ok │ │ D14 ┆ 2022 ┆ 37.00 ┆ 3.42 ┆ 3.35 ┆ ok │ │ D14 ┆ 2023 ┆ 38.00 ┆ 1.36 ┆ 1.36 ┆ ok │ │ D14 ┆ 2024 ┆ 34.00 ┆ 3.13 ┆ 3.06 ┆ ok │ │ D14 ┆ 2025 ┆ 32.00 ┆ 2.93 ┆ 2.93 ┆ ok │ │ D16 ┆ 2021 ┆ 32.00 ┆ 14.88 ┆ 14.86 ┆ ok │ │ D16 ┆ 2022 ┆ 37.00 ┆ 12.21 ┆ 12.21 ┆ ok │ │ D16 ┆ 2023 ┆ 38.00 ┆ 13.05 ┆ 13.05 ┆ ok │ │ D16 ┆ 2024 ┆ 34.00 ┆ 14.56 ┆ 14.52 ┆ ok │ │ D16 ┆ 2025 ┆ 32.00 ┆ 16.08 ┆ 16.08 ┆ ok │ └──────┴────────┴────────┴──────────────────┴──────────────────┴──────┘ == cross_checks == shape: (18, 9) ┌──────┬─────────┬────────────────┬───────┬──────────┬───────────┬───────┬─────────────────────┬────────────┐ │ site ┆ arm ┆ winters ┆ step ┆ step_low ┆ step_high ┆ slope ┆ d_step_same_winters ┆ ratio_to_d │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ str ┆ str ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 │ ╞══════╪═════════╪════════════════╪═══════╪══════════╪═══════════╪═══════╪═════════════════════╪════════════╡ │ D5 ┆ b0 ┆ 2023,2024,2025 ┆ 8.16 ┆ 7.47 ┆ 8.85 ┆ 0.12 ┆ 10.68 ┆ 0.76 │ │ D5 ┆ b0_k ┆ 2023,2024,2025 ┆ 9.93 ┆ 9.03 ┆ 10.76 ┆ 0.20 ┆ 10.68 ┆ 0.93 │ │ D5 ┆ t_all_k ┆ 2023,2024,2025 ┆ 5.49 ┆ 4.56 ┆ 6.40 ┆ -0.12 ┆ 10.68 ┆ 0.51 │ │ D9 ┆ b0 ┆ 2025 ┆ 4.47 ┆ 3.11 ┆ 5.64 ┆ 0.04 ┆ 8.89 ┆ 0.50 │ │ D9 ┆ b0_k ┆ 2025 ┆ 4.70 ┆ 3.31 ┆ 5.77 ┆ 0.16 ┆ 8.89 ┆ 0.53 │ │ D9 ┆ t_all_k ┆ 2025 ┆ 1.52 ┆ 0.20 ┆ 2.59 ┆ -0.08 ┆ 8.89 ┆ 0.17 │ │ D10 ┆ b0 ┆ 2023,2024,2025 ┆ 9.80 ┆ 9.42 ┆ 10.22 ┆ 0.25 ┆ 15.53 ┆ 0.63 │ │ D10 ┆ b0_k ┆ 2023,2024,2025 ┆ 11.12 ┆ 10.54 ┆ 11.64 ┆ 0.33 ┆ 15.53 ┆ 0.72 │ │ D10 ┆ t_all_k ┆ 2023,2024,2025 ┆ 6.38 ┆ 5.86 ┆ 6.91 ┆ 0.02 ┆ 15.53 ┆ 0.41 │ │ D11 ┆ b0 ┆ 2023,2024,2025 ┆ 4.79 ┆ 4.34 ┆ 5.27 ┆ 0.09 ┆ 7.43 ┆ 0.64 │ │ D11 ┆ b0_k ┆ 2023,2024,2025 ┆ 6.04 ┆ 5.53 ┆ 6.51 ┆ 0.13 ┆ 7.43 ┆ 0.81 │ │ D11 ┆ t_all_k ┆ 2023,2024,2025 ┆ 3.71 ┆ 3.19 ┆ 4.24 ┆ -0.03 ┆ 7.43 ┆ 0.50 │ │ D14 ┆ b0 ┆ 2023,2024,2025 ┆ 4.89 ┆ 4.46 ┆ 5.29 ┆ 0.19 ┆ 2.48 ┆ 1.97 │ │ D14 ┆ b0_k ┆ 2023,2024,2025 ┆ 6.61 ┆ 6.21 ┆ 6.95 ┆ 0.21 ┆ 2.48 ┆ 2.67 │ │ D14 ┆ t_all_k ┆ 2023,2024,2025 ┆ 3.34 ┆ 2.98 ┆ 3.71 ┆ -0.03 ┆ 2.48 ┆ 1.35 │ │ D16 ┆ b0 ┆ 2023,2024,2025 ┆ 7.46 ┆ 7.02 ┆ 7.89 ┆ 0.19 ┆ 14.38 ┆ 0.52 │ │ D16 ┆ b0_k ┆ 2023,2024,2025 ┆ 8.75 ┆ 7.99 ┆ 9.49 ┆ 0.28 ┆ 14.38 ┆ 0.61 │ │ D16 ┆ t_all_k ┆ 2023,2024,2025 ┆ 5.00 ┆ 4.29 ┆ 5.74 ┆ 0.01 ┆ 14.38 ┆ 0.35 │ └──────┴─────────┴────────────────┴───────┴──────────┴───────────┴───────┴─────────────────────┴────────────┘ == leave_one_out == shape: (6, 4) ┌──────────┬───────┬─────┬────────────────┐ │ left_out ┆ mean ┆ k ┆ inside_full_hk │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ f64 ┆ i64 ┆ bool │ ╞══════════╪═══════╪═════╪════════════════╡ │ D5 ┆ 9.84 ┆ 5 ┆ true │ │ D9 ┆ 10.19 ┆ 5 ┆ true │ │ D10 ┆ 8.88 ┆ 5 ┆ true │ │ D11 ┆ 10.62 ┆ 5 ┆ true │ │ D14 ┆ 11.46 ┆ 5 ┆ true │ │ D16 ┆ 9.27 ┆ 5 ┆ true │ └──────────┴───────┴─────┴────────────────┘ == timing == shape: (14, 6) ┌──────┬─────────────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐ │ site ┆ cold_bst_nights ┆ delta ┆ low ┆ high ┆ label │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ str │ ╞══════╪═════════════════╪═══════╪═══════╪═══════╪═══════╡ │ D5 ┆ 78 ┆ -0.37 ┆ -0.40 ┆ -0.33 ┆ UTC │ │ D9 ┆ 24 ┆ -0.52 ┆ -0.55 ┆ -0.45 ┆ UTC │ │ D10 ┆ 97 ┆ -0.46 ┆ -0.51 ┆ -0.41 ┆ UTC │ │ D11 ┆ 99 ┆ -0.49 ┆ -0.55 ┆ -0.42 ┆ UTC │ │ D14 ┆ 78 ┆ -0.45 ┆ -0.53 ┆ -0.35 ┆ UTC │ │ D16 ┆ 72 ┆ -0.28 ┆ -0.32 ┆ -0.22 ┆ UTC │ │ D2 ┆ 90 ┆ -1.36 ┆ -1.44 ┆ -1.28 ┆ UTC │ │ D3 ┆ 78 ┆ -0.85 ┆ -0.89 ┆ -0.78 ┆ UTC │ │ D4 ┆ 90 ┆ -0.65 ┆ -0.73 ┆ -0.56 ┆ UTC │ │ D8 ┆ 78 ┆ -0.37 ┆ -0.46 ┆ -0.24 ┆ UTC │ │ D12 ┆ 78 ┆ -0.28 ┆ -0.33 ┆ -0.21 ┆ UTC │ │ D19 ┆ 90 ┆ -0.67 ┆ -0.73 ┆ -0.58 ┆ UTC │ │ D21 ┆ 89 ┆ -0.30 ┆ -0.37 ┆ -0.22 ┆ UTC │ │ D22 ┆ 78 ┆ -0.16 ┆ -0.19 ┆ -0.11 ┆ UTC │ └──────┴─────────────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘ == bst_jump == shape: (14, 6) ┌──────┬───────────────────────┬───────────────────────┬──────────────────┬────────────┬────────────┐ │ site ┆ gmt_jump_start_minute ┆ bst_jump_start_minute ┆ shift_half_hours ┆ bst_nights ┆ gmt_nights │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ i64 ┆ i64 ┆ i64 ┆ i64 ┆ i64 │ ╞══════╪═══════════════════════╪═══════════════════════╪══════════════════╪════════════╪════════════╡ │ D5 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 78 ┆ 630 │ │ D9 ┆ 30 ┆ 300 ┆ 9 ┆ 24 ┆ 259 │ │ D10 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 97 ┆ 656 │ │ D11 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 99 ┆ 659 │ │ D14 ┆ 30 ┆ 150 ┆ 4 ┆ 78 ┆ 610 │ │ D16 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 72 ┆ 495 │ │ D2 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 90 ┆ 644 │ │ D3 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 78 ┆ 608 │ │ D4 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 90 ┆ 644 │ │ D8 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 78 ┆ 635 │ │ D12 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 78 ┆ 637 │ │ D19 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 90 ┆ 644 │ │ D21 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 89 ┆ 644 │ │ D22 ┆ 30 ┆ 90 ┆ 2 ┆ 78 ┆ 637 │ └──────┴───────────────────────┴───────────────────────┴──────────────────┴────────────┴────────────┘ == hand_filtered == shape: (6, 6) ┌──────┬──────────────────┬───────┬──────────┬───────────┬───────┐ │ site ┆ readings_dropped ┆ step ┆ step_low ┆ step_high ┆ slope │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 │ ╞══════╪══════════════════╪═══════╪══════════╪═══════════╪═══════╡ │ D5 ┆ 5200 ┆ 11.57 ┆ 11.10 ┆ 11.90 ┆ 0.28 │ │ D9 ┆ 443 ┆ 9.61 ┆ 8.69 ┆ 10.37 ┆ 0.33 │ │ D10 ┆ 1703 ┆ 15.81 ┆ 15.38 ┆ 16.20 ┆ 0.37 │ │ D11 ┆ 193 ┆ 7.16 ┆ 6.82 ┆ 7.49 ┆ 0.12 │ │ D14 ┆ 857 ┆ 2.97 ┆ 2.52 ┆ 3.41 ┆ 0.07 │ │ D16 ┆ 3676 ┆ 13.83 ┆ 13.28 ┆ 14.26 ┆ 0.29 │ └──────┴──────────────────┴───────┴──────────┴───────────┴───────┘ == raw_cold_step == shape: (3, 5) ┌──────┬─────────────┬─────────┬─────────────┬───────────────────────┐ │ site ┆ cold_nights ┆ step_mw ┆ step_points ┆ effective_capacity_mw │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 │ ╞══════╪═════════════╪═════════╪═════════════╪═══════════════════════╡ │ D5 ┆ 36 ┆ 0.27 ┆ 4.78 ┆ 5.72 │ │ D10 ┆ 39 ┆ 0.44 ┆ 8.16 ┆ 5.40 │ │ D16 ┆ 39 ┆ 0.87 ┆ 9.53 ┆ 9.11 │ └──────┴─────────────┴─────────┴─────────────┴───────────────────────┘ == pooled == shape: (5, 13) ┌─────────────────────────────────┬─────┬───────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬───────────┬──────┬─────────┬──────────┬─────────┬─────────┬──────────────────────┐ │ set ┆ k ┆ mean ┆ low_hk ┆ high_hk ┆ low_boot ┆ high_boot ┆ tau ┆ tau_low ┆ tau_high ┆ minimum ┆ maximum ┆ label │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ str │ ╞═════════════════════════════════╪═════╪═══════╪════════╪═════════╪══════════╪═══════════╪══════╪═════════╪══════════╪═════════╪═════════╪══════════════════════╡ │ six decision series (headline) ┆ 6 ┆ 10.05 ┆ 6.22 ┆ 13.88 ┆ 7.13 ┆ 12.96 ┆ 4.25 ┆ 2.81 ┆ 7.46 ┆ 2.99 ┆ 15.84 ┆ ok │ │ D5, D10, D16 (selected for sho… ┆ 3 ┆ 13.60 ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ 11.06 ┆ 15.84 ┆ plain mean and range │ │ D9, D11, D14 (not selected) ┆ 3 ┆ 6.49 ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ 2.99 ┆ 9.31 ┆ plain mean and range │ │ E7-X (eight further Primaries) ┆ 8 ┆ 13.36 ┆ 7.11 ┆ 19.62 ┆ 8.77 ┆ 18.66 ┆ 8.72 ┆ 6.05 ┆ 14.05 ┆ 0.83 ┆ 32.89 ┆ ok │ │ all 14 series ┆ 14 ┆ 11.93 ┆ 8.33 ┆ 15.53 ┆ 8.89 ┆ 15.24 ┆ 7.32 ┆ 5.52 ┆ 10.37 ┆ 0.83 ┆ 32.89 ┆ ok │ └─────────────────────────────────┴─────┴───────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴───────────┴──────┴─────────┴──────────┴─────────┴─────────┴──────────────────────┘ == per winter (single-winter fits, step in points) == shape: (68, 6) ┌──────┬────────────────────┬───────┬──────────┬───────────┬──────────┐ │ site ┆ winter_set ┆ step ┆ step_low ┆ step_high ┆ n_nights │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ str ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ i64 │ ╞══════╪════════════════════╪═══════╪══════════╪═══════════╪══════════╡ │ D10 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 17.04 ┆ 16.04 ┆ 17.85 ┆ 133 │ │ D10 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 15.61 ┆ 14.72 ┆ 16.57 ┆ 134 │ │ D10 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 14.66 ┆ 14.10 ┆ 15.06 ┆ 140 │ │ D10 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 14.22 ┆ 13.55 ┆ 14.95 ┆ 142 │ │ D10 ┆ single winter 2025 ┆ 17.72 ┆ 17.15 ┆ 18.29 ┆ 142 │ │ D11 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 6.57 ┆ 5.81 ┆ 7.07 ┆ 133 │ │ D11 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 6.86 ┆ 6.30 ┆ 7.54 ┆ 134 │ │ D11 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 6.77 ┆ 5.95 ┆ 7.30 ┆ 140 │ │ D11 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 7.75 ┆ 7.20 ┆ 8.30 ┆ 142 │ │ D11 ┆ single winter 2025 ┆ 7.69 ┆ 7.06 ┆ 8.21 ┆ 142 │ │ D12 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 19.58 ┆ 16.49 ┆ 22.68 ┆ 133 │ │ D12 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 12.01 ┆ 10.43 ┆ 13.60 ┆ 134 │ │ D12 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 10.37 ┆ 8.16 ┆ 12.06 ┆ 139 │ │ D12 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 18.23 ┆ 14.23 ┆ 23.47 ┆ 142 │ │ D12 ┆ single winter 2025 ┆ 24.66 ┆ 20.68 ┆ 27.65 ┆ 142 │ │ D14 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 4.20 ┆ 3.30 ┆ 4.91 ┆ 133 │ │ D14 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 3.19 ┆ 2.22 ┆ 3.95 ┆ 134 │ │ D14 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 1.30 ┆ 0.74 ┆ 1.84 ┆ 140 │ │ D14 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 3.04 ┆ 2.45 ┆ 3.62 ┆ 142 │ │ D14 ┆ single winter 2025 ┆ 3.00 ┆ 2.35 ┆ 3.73 ┆ 142 │ │ D16 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 15.01 ┆ 13.79 ┆ 15.98 ┆ 133 │ │ D16 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 11.59 ┆ 10.87 ┆ 12.30 ┆ 134 │ │ D16 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 12.79 ┆ 12.11 ┆ 13.43 ┆ 140 │ │ D16 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 14.35 ┆ 13.29 ┆ 15.24 ┆ 142 │ │ D16 ┆ single winter 2025 ┆ 15.99 ┆ 14.38 ┆ 17.24 ┆ 142 │ │ D19 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 40.17 ┆ 38.24 ┆ 41.70 ┆ 133 │ │ D19 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 33.20 ┆ 31.80 ┆ 34.53 ┆ 134 │ │ D19 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 30.90 ┆ 29.43 ┆ 32.64 ┆ 140 │ │ D19 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 30.22 ┆ 28.74 ┆ 31.67 ┆ 142 │ │ D19 ┆ single winter 2025 ┆ 30.59 ┆ 28.14 ┆ 32.32 ┆ 142 │ │ D2 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 16.49 ┆ 15.44 ┆ 17.16 ┆ 133 │ │ D2 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 14.83 ┆ 14.02 ┆ 15.66 ┆ 134 │ │ D2 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 13.71 ┆ 13.00 ┆ 14.25 ┆ 140 │ │ D2 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 13.71 ┆ 12.83 ┆ 14.40 ┆ 142 │ │ D2 ┆ single winter 2025 ┆ 13.40 ┆ 12.21 ┆ 14.18 ┆ 142 │ │ D21 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 10.11 ┆ 9.40 ┆ 10.71 ┆ 133 │ │ D21 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 8.04 ┆ 7.49 ┆ 8.56 ┆ 133 │ │ D21 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 10.06 ┆ 8.94 ┆ 10.90 ┆ 140 │ │ D21 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 10.43 ┆ 9.64 ┆ 11.23 ┆ 142 │ │ D21 ┆ single winter 2025 ┆ 9.68 ┆ 8.48 ┆ 10.50 ┆ 142 │ │ D22 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 13.89 ┆ 12.64 ┆ 15.06 ┆ 133 │ │ D22 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 13.29 ┆ 12.19 ┆ 14.45 ┆ 134 │ │ D22 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 12.26 ┆ 11.15 ┆ 12.93 ┆ 139 │ │ D22 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 11.26 ┆ 10.21 ┆ 12.47 ┆ 142 │ │ D22 ┆ single winter 2025 ┆ 11.84 ┆ 10.55 ┆ 12.96 ┆ 142 │ │ D3 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 8.17 ┆ 7.75 ┆ 8.49 ┆ 133 │ │ D3 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 6.76 ┆ 6.41 ┆ 7.08 ┆ 134 │ │ D3 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 5.51 ┆ 5.17 ┆ 5.78 ┆ 140 │ │ D3 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 6.03 ┆ 5.79 ┆ 6.25 ┆ 142 │ │ D3 ┆ single winter 2025 ┆ 6.15 ┆ 5.89 ┆ 6.37 ┆ 142 │ │ D4 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 14.39 ┆ 12.36 ┆ 15.94 ┆ 133 │ │ D4 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 12.25 ┆ 10.89 ┆ 13.49 ┆ 134 │ │ D4 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 13.17 ┆ 11.61 ┆ 14.34 ┆ 140 │ │ D4 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 13.85 ┆ 12.46 ┆ 14.96 ┆ 142 │ │ D4 ┆ single winter 2025 ┆ 12.97 ┆ 11.20 ┆ 14.27 ┆ 142 │ │ D5 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ 12.03 ┆ 11.12 ┆ 12.78 ┆ 133 │ │ D5 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 11.26 ┆ 10.79 ┆ 11.63 ┆ 134 │ │ D5 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 8.98 ┆ 8.14 ┆ 9.77 ┆ 140 │ │ D5 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 11.00 ┆ 10.41 ┆ 11.56 ┆ 142 │ │ D5 ┆ single winter 2025 ┆ 11.86 ┆ 10.13 ┆ 14.15 ┆ 142 │ │ D8 ┆ single winter 2021 ┆ -0.43 ┆ -1.74 ┆ 0.87 ┆ 133 │ │ D8 ┆ single winter 2022 ┆ 0.75 ┆ -0.54 ┆ 2.03 ┆ 134 │ │ D8 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 2.21 ┆ 0.39 ┆ 3.76 ┆ 140 │ │ D8 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ -0.19 ┆ -1.78 ┆ 1.63 ┆ 142 │ │ D8 ┆ single winter 2025 ┆ 2.35 ┆ 0.52 ┆ 4.00 ┆ 142 │ │ D9 ┆ single winter 2023 ┆ 9.52 ┆ 7.90 ┆ 10.79 ┆ 140 │ │ D9 ┆ single winter 2024 ┆ 9.50 ┆ 8.34 ┆ 10.35 ┆ 142 │ │ D9 ┆ single winter 2025 ┆ 8.89 ┆ 7.56 ┆ 9.75 ┆ 142 │ └──────┴────────────────────┴───────┴──────────┴───────────┴──────────┘ == start times == shape: (14, 5) ┌──────┬──────────────────────────────┬────────────────┬─────────────────┬─────────────┐ │ site ┆ start_half_hour_start_minute ┆ low_half_hours ┆ high_half_hours ┆ cold_nights │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ i64 │ ╞══════╪══════════════════════════════╪════════════════╪═════════════════╪═════════════╡ │ D5 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 430 │ │ D9 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 259 │ │ D10 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 445 │ │ D11 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 445 │ │ D14 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 429 │ │ D16 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 432 │ │ D2 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 440 │ │ D3 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 430 │ │ D4 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 440 │ │ D8 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 430 │ │ D12 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 429 │ │ D19 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 440 │ │ D21 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 440 │ │ D22 ┆ 30 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 0.00 ┆ 429 │ └──────┴──────────────────────────────┴────────────────┴─────────────────┴─────────────┘ ## Cold nights, winters 2023-24 to 2025-26 D5: 104 cold nights; largest median miss +6.1 points in the half-hour starting 01:00; morning rise at 07:00 (actual) and 06:00 (forecast) D9: 104 cold nights; largest median miss +2.9 points in the half-hour starting 01:30; morning rise at 06:00 (actual) and 07:00 (forecast) D10: 104 cold nights; largest median miss +6.7 points in the half-hour starting 01:00; morning rise at 06:00 (actual) and 06:00 (forecast) D11: 104 cold nights; largest median miss +3.6 points in the half-hour starting 03:00; morning rise at 06:30 (actual) and 06:00 (forecast) D14: 104 cold nights; largest median miss +4.0 points in the half-hour starting 02:00; morning rise at 06:00 (actual) and 06:00 (forecast) D16: 104 cold nights; largest median miss +9.6 points in the half-hour starting 01:00; morning rise at 07:00 (actual) and 06:30 (forecast) D2: 104 cold nights D3: 104 cold nights D4: 104 cold nights D8: 104 cold nights D12: 104 cold nights D19: 104 cold nights D21: 104 cold nights D22: 104 cold nights ## Selection winter 2025-26 == winter 2025-26 alone, per series (points) == shape: (14, 7) ┌──────┬───────────┬───────┬───────┬───────────────────────┬────────────┬───────────────────┐ │ site ┆ step_2025 ┆ low ┆ high ┆ headline_winters_mean ┆ difference ┆ positive_interval │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ bool │ ╞══════╪═══════════╪═══════╪═══════╪═══════════════════════╪════════════╪═══════════════════╡ │ D5 ┆ 11.86 ┆ 10.13 ┆ 14.15 ┆ 10.82 ┆ 1.05 ┆ true │ │ D9 ┆ 8.89 ┆ 7.56 ┆ 9.75 ┆ 9.51 ┆ -0.62 ┆ true │ │ D10 ┆ 17.72 ┆ 17.15 ┆ 18.29 ┆ 15.38 ┆ 2.34 ┆ true │ │ D11 ┆ 7.69 ┆ 7.06 ┆ 8.21 ┆ 6.99 ┆ 0.71 ┆ true │ │ D14 ┆ 3.00 ┆ 2.35 ┆ 3.73 ┆ 2.94 ┆ 0.06 ┆ true │ │ D16 ┆ 15.99 ┆ 14.38 ┆ 17.24 ┆ 13.44 ┆ 2.55 ┆ true │ │ D2 ┆ 13.40 ┆ 12.21 ┆ 14.18 ┆ 14.68 ┆ -1.28 ┆ true │ │ D3 ┆ 6.15 ┆ 5.89 ┆ 6.37 ┆ 6.62 ┆ -0.46 ┆ true │ │ D4 ┆ 12.97 ┆ 11.20 ┆ 14.27 ┆ 13.42 ┆ -0.45 ┆ true │ │ D8 ┆ 2.35 ┆ 0.52 ┆ 4.00 ┆ 0.58 ┆ 1.77 ┆ true │ │ D12 ┆ 24.66 ┆ 20.68 ┆ 27.65 ┆ 15.05 ┆ 9.61 ┆ true │ │ D19 ┆ 30.59 ┆ 28.14 ┆ 32.32 ┆ 33.62 ┆ -3.04 ┆ true │ │ D21 ┆ 9.68 ┆ 8.48 ┆ 10.50 ┆ 9.66 ┆ 0.02 ┆ true │ │ D22 ┆ 11.84 ┆ 10.55 ┆ 12.96 ┆ 12.68 ┆ -0.84 ┆ true │ └──────┴───────────┴───────┴───────┴───────────────────────┴────────────┴───────────────────┘ == winter 2025-26 alone, pooled sets == shape: (5, 8) ┌─────────────────────────────────┬─────┬───────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬───────────┬──────────────────────┐ │ set ┆ k ┆ mean ┆ low_hk ┆ high_hk ┆ low_boot ┆ high_boot ┆ label │ │ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- ┆ --- │ │ str ┆ i64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ f64 ┆ str │ ╞═════════════════════════════════╪═════╪═══════╪════════╪═════════╪══════════╪═══════════╪══════════════════════╡ │ six decision series (headline) ┆ 6 ┆ 10.85 ┆ 6.33 ┆ 15.36 ┆ 7.32 ┆ 14.29 ┆ ok │ │ D5, D10, D16 (selected for sho… ┆ 3 ┆ 15.19 ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ plain mean and range │ │ D9, D11, D14 (not selected) ┆ 3 ┆ 6.53 ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ NaN ┆ plain mean and range │ │ E7-X (eight further Primaries) ┆ 8 ┆ 13.75 ┆ 7.56 ┆ 19.94 ┆ 8.93 ┆ 18.96 ┆ ok │ │ all 14 series ┆ 14 ┆ 12.47 ┆ 8.82 ┆ 16.12 ┆ 9.26 ┆ 15.69 ┆ ok │ └─────────────────────────────────┴─────┴───────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴───────────┴──────────────────────┘